New Tropical Storm Karen

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) named Tropical Storm Karen early Sunday Morning.

Big rain maker for the Eastern Caribbean. They are also watching Tropical Storm Jerry.

Jerry will be a threat to Bermuda. Tropical storm Karen should drop plenty of rain from Northern Venezuela northward across the Lesser Antilles. Lets start with Karen.

NHC determined early Sunday morning that the low pressure area east of Tobago had organized with more thunderstorm activity around its center and classified it as a Tropical Storm.

Alerts

Tropical Storm Force winds of over 39 mph are being felt already across some of the islands. Warnings  have been issued for the following locations.

Tropical Storm Warning

• St. Vincent & the Grenadines
• Trinidad & Tobago
• Grenada & its dependancies

A Tropical Storm Watch (39+ mph winds may be felt in roughly 48 hours), may be issued later this evening for Puerto Rico and other areas along the Windward Islands.

Forecast Track

The track has Karen crossing over from the Atlantic into the Caribbean Sea by Monday. There it will get spun north traveling towards Puerto Rico and nearby islands. This is all due to high pressure sitting to its East. Clockwise winds from the high will push it NNW over the next 36 hours.

Afterwards, Karen will slow down or maybe even stall for a while as it will be caught between two high pressure systems. It will slightly veer west by the end of the week as the next high comes out of the U.S.

Models:

LATE UPDATE: Long range models now hint Karen may head west. How far is yet to be determined.  East Coast should monitor.

Impacts

Rain

• Windward Islands: 3 - 6 inches with some localized areas up to 8 inches
• Northern Venezuela: 1 - 3 inches
• Barbados: 1 - 3 inches
• Leeward Islands: 1 - 3 inches with isolated amounts up to 5 inches.

This rain may lead to flooding, land & mudslides

Tropical Storm Jerry

Jerry will continue on an almost northerly track away from the Bahamas. Unfortunately it may impact Bermuda early next week as a tropical storm. Watches & warnings may be issued there as the system approaches. Last week they dealt with Hurricane Humberto. Hoping Jerry remains weak and slides past.

Another Area to Monitor

A strong tropical wave monitored by NHC for days has emerged out of Western Africa and is now in the Far Eastern Atlantic Ocean. This may quickly become a depression or tropical storm.

Here is the latest:

• Plenty of thunderstorm activity
• Getting better organized
• Atmospheric conditions will support development
• Moving West at 15 - 20 mph
• Cape Verde needs to be on alert as this disturbance may drop heavy rain there
• This is now Invest 90L. Invest for an area NHC would like to INVEST-igate further, 90 is a tracking number, and "L" stands for Atlantic Basin.

If it develops, where may it go?

Early model runs suggest this system will track NW in the short term and then curve north, northeast being a worry for the shipping lanes.

We'll be watching.

dsfsd