Storm Advisories May be Issued Later today

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is closely monitoring a disturbance over the Central, and Southeastern Bahamas. They may start issuing advisories on this system later today.

Latest Data:

• The disturbance, better known as Invest 95L, continues to drop in pressure and is looking better organized on satellite imagery. NHC adds that conditions are becoming favorable for a depression or a storm to form within 48 hours. 
• If it continues to show signs of further development, NHC may start issuing advisories before the system actually comes together. This will give people in the path of the system, extra time to prep.
• It is moving to the NW at around 5 - 10 mph. On this track it will travel towards the NW Bahamas and the Florida Peninsula
• The NW Bahamas should expect heavy rain and gusty winds through Friday.
• Florida may see rain and gusty winds starting on Friday. It will all depend on where the disturbance finally ends up.

Models

Tricky forecast

When you see models fan out like this, it means there are too many variables presently for them to get a good handle on what is happening in the atmosphere and how all those features may play out over a period of 5 days..

Lets take a look at a few, starting with the GEM:

This models places the system over South Florida by Saturday.

The Euro:

This model takes the system over the NW Bahamas late Saturday into Sunday morning.

The GFS

Places a weaker system in the Gulf of Mexico late Sat/early Sun.

With all these different outcomes, NHC may have to issue Potential Storm Advisories, which means they know something will develop, they just can't get a handle on where or how strong it may be.

The NW Bahamas will be drenched again even if nothing pans out from this disturbance. If it intensifies, then you can add strong winds to the mix.

For South Florida, and the rest of the state, the Best Case Scenario will be some heavy downpours this weekend and breezy conditions. Worst case could be a named system.

As soon as we get info from NHC, we'll pass it along.

We'll be watching