Dorian Now a Cat 5

As of 11 am Sunday, winds at 180 mph with 200 mph gusts. Wherever that moves over, it will be leveled. 

The cone still begins at the Palm Beach co line to points north along Florida's East Coast.  Please see impacts section below for watches and warnings .  The National Hurricane Center still expects Dorian to take a turn northward.  Extremely Dangerous Dorian hitting Abaco Island & Great Bahama later today.  

• At this moment from NHC:

• Dorian is a monster with well defined eye. Impacting NW Bahamas now
• Still in low shear environment, which means no strong winds in the upper levels to weaken it
• High pressure to the East to remain in place through today pushing Dorian due west. It should stop tonight allowing Dorian to slow to a crawl for next 48 hrs
• The turn NW is now expected in 2 days 
• Hurricane Watch from Broward / Palm Beach Co line to points north. This means hurricane force winds can arrive in the area in 48 hours.
• Tropical Storm Warning from Broward / Palm Beach Co line north to Sebastian. This means Tropical Storm force winds between 39-73 mph can be expected in 36 hours.
• Tropical Storm watch in place for Broward Co. This means Tropical storm force winds can be expected in 48 hrs.

What next?

Dorian will continue to slow down even further as the high pressure system that was pushing west has backed off. Hurricanes don't move on their own, so its going to drift over the NW Bahamas until something else pushes it along. That something else will be a front coming out the Southeastern US. It may take a couple of days for that to happen. Dorian will keep punishing the NW Bahamas until then.

Hopefully the front will shove Dorian north starting on Wednesday. KEEP ALERT. With a system this strong anything is possible. Have never seen anything like it. Even though So FL is not in the cone, we can still get impacted here.

Impacts

NW Bahamas:  Per NHC, "Catastrophic" conditions in Abaco today.  Later into Grand Bahamas. Heavy rainfall. 12 - 24 inches possible with some getting as much as 30 inches.  A dangerous and destructive storm surge of 18 - 23 feet high. Life threatening Flash Floods expected in Abaco Islands  & Grand Bahama through Monday.

Central Bahamas: Winds with rainfall amounts  2 - 4 inches with some areas as much as 6. Some gusty winds for you.

SE Bahamas & Turks & Caicos: You should not see any major impacts but some spotty rain with breezy conditions are possible.


South Florida: If the cone were to remain as is, here are the possible impacts. The Keys may see some moments of windy conditions of less then 39 mph.  Broward and Miami-Dade could get on & off gusty winds of 39 to 73 mph. Highest probability now is for Broward.

The Keys: Some storms are possible. The rain could lead to street flooding. Winds up to 40 mph at times. Higher surf.

Broward: Tropical Storm Watch issued for you. You are out of the cone but you can expect some tropical storm force winds of over 40 mph by Monday night. This is why NHC has issued a storm watch. Potential for heavy rain is there as well as flooding.  Usually when this happens, you are urged to protect your property with shutters.  You know your property best, what it can and cannot withstand. 

Miami-Dade: Winds over 40 mph at times. Possible heavy rain as much as 2 - 4 inches with isolated spots getting 6". This could lead to flooding, specially with the ground saturated from recent rainfall.  Storm surge not expected. We may still see some tropical storm watches and warnings issued. Usually when this happens, you are urged to protect your property with shutters. You know your property best, what it can and cannot withstand.

Bottom line: Hopefully Dorian will continue to move away from FL as it nears. While no direct impact is still expected, hurricanes can cause plenty of trouble far away from their center. Feeder bands can still move over much of South Florida with the potential some winds and rain.

Please monitor the hurricane for any additional changes both good or bad.