Caribbean Concern

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is issuing advisories on Tropical Storms Jerry and Karen.  Jerry is in the Atlantic Ocean possibly on a track that could impact Bermuda down the road, and Karen is dropping flooding rains across parts of the Windward Islands, Trinidad & Tobago, as well as the north coast of Venezuela.

Karen Info

As of 5 pm Sunday:

• Karen is now in the Eastern Caribbean Sea
• USAF Hurricane Hunter finds the system with a well defined circulation, but the northern part of the storm has lost its cloud cover and rain. Unclear if this will lead to weakening.
• Heavy rain has been impacting Trinidad and Tobago.
• More rain and gusty winds tonight for the Windward Islands with 3 - 6 inches of rain and some areas as high as 8 inches.
• Tropical Storm watch for Puerto Rico, and the U.S. & British Virgin Islands. This means winds over 39 mph may reach the area in 48 hours. They may also get 2 to 6 inches of rain.

Trinidad & Tobago Radar

This shows the heavy rains from Karen impacting the islands as well as the northern coast of Venezuela.

Where to next?

It will track NNW across the Eastern Caribbean Sea dogged by some strong upper levels winds known as shear. This should keep it as a storm throughout its lifetime or even weaken the system further.

By Tuesday evening Karen enters the Atlantic Ocean and the shear relaxes giving it a chance to intensify.

Towards the end of the week, the cone jogs a tad to the NW as models begin to fan out in the forecast track.

Models

Models are in agreement the system will move almost due north until the end of next week, then they fan out. When this happens, it usually means something is throwing them off, in this case it's a high pressure dome coming out of the Eastern Seaboard.

This high will act as a major roadblock keeping Karen from traveling north. Some models bounce the system off the high to the east, and others to the west. If the west bounce takes place, the Bahamas and Florida should be on alert.

Tropical Storm Jerry

Jerry is now where Karen may be next week. The high that will aim it towards Bermuda, will be the same system that will deflect Karen east or west.  Bermuda should monitor Jerry for gusty winds and heavy rain.  A Tropical Storm Watch may be issued later tonight.

System to be

Latest data

A strong wave has moved off the west coast of Africa and is poised to become a tropical system at any moment. Here is what NHC is saying.

• Plenty of thunderstorm activity
• Getting better organized
• Atmospheric conditions will support development
• Moving West at 15 - 20 mph
• Cape Verde needs to be on alert as this disturbance may drop heavy rain there
• This is now Invest 90L. Invest for an area NHC would like to INVEST-igate further, 90 is a tracking number, and "L" stands for Atlantic Basin.

If it develops, where may it go?

Early model run suggest this system will track NW in the short term and then curve north, northeast being a worry for the shipping lanes.

We'll be watching.