Island Worries

A couple of tropical features could provide more than a damper on islands across the Caribbean over the next few days.

We start with a Tropical Wave East of the Windward Islands. This disturbance is now classified as Invest 99 L. Invest for an area the National Hurricane Center (NHC), would like to INVESTigate further, 99 is a tracking number, and "L" stands for Atlantic Basin.

The latest as of Saturday afternoon:

• The wave is racing westward at 15 - 20 mph. 
• NOAA Recon suggests the low does NOT have a well defined center. Good news as it indicates it is not getting stronger.
• Even if it doesn't develop, heavy rain & gusty winds are still possible cross the Lesser Antilles over the next few days.
• Everyone across the Lesser Antilles & Puerto Rico should monitor the latest developments with this system.
• Chances for developing into a depression or a storm stand at 50% over the next 48 hours and at 60% thru 5 days, per NHC.

If it were to develop, where would it go?

Most early model runs, suggest it will cross over the Windward Islands during the weekend and then curve towards Puerto Rico by the middle of next week. It should then emerge into the Atlantic again. It is forecast to remain over open waters afterwards.

A reminder there is no such thing as the BEST model, if there were such a thing, we would only need one. There are dozens and dozens, each tasked with looking at different things in the atmosphere. Each will provide a forecast track which will be used by NHC experts, to come up with the forecast cone when and if it develops.  At this stage, since nothing has organized, the models are providing a guesstimate.

Disturbance in Caribbean

Latest info:

• Weak area of low pressure sitting over Eastern Cuba with pockets of rain over Jamaica, Haiti & Dom. Republic.
• As of 2 pm, NHC says ZERO chance it can turn into a depression or a storm
• The potential for heavy rain exists and that could lead to flooding, land & mudslides, across Haiti, Dom. Republic & Eastern Cuba, through the weekend.

Wave across West Coast of Africa

It is presently night time across West Africa and thus used infrared Satellite imagery.  This allows us to see cloud cover without a light source. Notice the area of clouds right along the coast. This is the area NHC is monitoring.

2 pm Update

• NHC is giving this tropical wave a 50% chance to become a depression or a storm once it moves over water during the next 48 hours. Chances skyrocket to 90% over a period of 5 days.
• Models are still sketchy in this extremely early phase.
• Need to wait once it develops to get a real good idea where it may end up.
• It's over 2000 miles away and there's plenty of time to monitor.

We'll be watching