The Peak of Hurricane Season

September 10th marks the height of activity in the Atlantic Basin for tropical systems. True to form, the National Hurricane Center (NHC), is tracking one tropical storm and three tropical waves.

After this date, we should slowly see a decline in the amount of tropical systems spawned by Mother Nature. However for South Florida our season peaks in mid October. The entire season ends November 30th. By the way, hurricane season is a man-made timeline.

In order for storms to form they need at least 80° of water temperature. This usually happens between June & November but if the waters heat up to that threshold before or after the season... a system can happen at anytime.

Activity Now

NHC is tracking Tropical Storm Gabrielle heading into the cold waters of the Northern Atlantic. It should bother no one, although its remnants may impact the United Kingdom in a few days.

There are three other waves making their way through the Atlantic moving east to west. As you know, tropical waves are nothing more than an area of clouds and rain. Dozens and dozens come out of the west coast of Africa every year and maybe a handful grow to be something stronger.

Wave # 1

This wave has barely come off the coast of Africa and NHC is already giving it a 20% chance that it could become a depression or a storm once it reaches the area highlighted in yellow over a period of 5 days. Note: This yellow area is NOT a forecast cone, but rather the area NHC thinks something could develop.

Where is it headed?

Models at this point (when nothing has organized) are just giving us a guesstimate. In this case, the GFS model shows the possibility of a strong system over So FL by Friday Sep 20th.  Again, this model is giving a very long range outlook without anything having formed. Models need a good starting point in order to provide a good ending point. So far this system is just a blob of clouds and rain emerging from the African continent.  I am providing you with this info so you can monitor its progress.  Once it organizes, you will have a better idea of where it may be headed.

Wave #2

This wave is now known as Invest94L. Invest for an area NHC would like to INVESTigate further, 94 is a tracking number, and "L" stands for the Atlantic Basin.  The invest has a 30% chance for growth in the yellow area. Even if it doesn't develop it could dump some rain across the Lesser Antilles.

There are only a handful of models running at this point and they basically place the system near the islands by the weekend. It is then expected to fizzle out. We'll be watching.

Wave # 3

This wave is sitting north of Dominican Republic and is slowly moving to the Bahamas and South Florida. If it doesn't fall apart, it could be over the area highlighted in yellow by the end of the week. It has a very small chance to develop. Once there, it will be over land with some strong upper level winds bothering it.

What to Expect

If the wave does not fall apart, it could provide more rain for the Bahamas on Thursday and then a chance for downpours across South Florida by Friday and maybe into Saturday. If the wave is still around by Sunday, it should be in the Gulf of Mexico and then be a worry for he Gulf States.

We'll be watching