Caribbean Concern

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is issuing advisories on Tropical Storms Jerry and Karen.  Jerry is in the Atlantic Ocean possibly on a track that could impact Bermuda down the road, and Karen is dropping flooding rains across parts of the Windward Islands, Trinidad & Tobago, as well as the north coast of Venezuela.

Karen Info

As of 5 pm Sunday:

• Karen is now in the Eastern Caribbean Sea
• USAF Hurricane Hunter finds the system with a well defined circulation, but the northern part of the storm has lost its cloud cover and rain. Unclear if this will lead to weakening.
• Heavy rain has been impacting Trinidad and Tobago.
• More rain and gusty winds tonight for the Windward Islands with 3 - 6 inches of rain and some areas as high as 8 inches.
• Tropical Storm watch for Puerto Rico, and the U.S. & British Virgin Islands. This means winds over 39 mph may reach the area in 48 hours. They may also get 2 to 6 inches of rain.

Trinidad & Tobago Radar

This shows the heavy rains from Karen impacting the islands as well as the northern coast of Venezuela.

Where to next?

It will track NNW across the Eastern Caribbean Sea dogged by some strong upper levels winds known as shear. This should keep it as a storm throughout its lifetime or even weaken the system further.

By Tuesday evening Karen enters the Atlantic Ocean and the shear relaxes giving it a chance to intensify.

Towards the end of the week, the cone jogs a tad to the NW as models begin to fan out in the forecast track.

Models

Models are in agreement the system will move almost due north until the end of next week, then they fan out. When this happens, it usually means something is throwing them off, in this case it's a high pressure dome coming out of the Eastern Seaboard.

This high will act as a major roadblock keeping Karen from traveling north. Some models bounce the system off the high to the east, and others to the west. If the west bounce takes place, the Bahamas and Florida should be on alert.

Tropical Storm Jerry

Jerry is now where Karen may be next week. The high that will aim it towards Bermuda, will be the same system that will deflect Karen east or west.  Bermuda should monitor Jerry for gusty winds and heavy rain.  A Tropical Storm Watch may be issued later tonight.

System to be

Latest data

A strong wave has moved off the west coast of Africa and is poised to become a tropical system at any moment. Here is what NHC is saying.

• Plenty of thunderstorm activity
• Getting better organized
• Atmospheric conditions will support development
• Moving West at 15 - 20 mph
• Cape Verde needs to be on alert as this disturbance may drop heavy rain there
• This is now Invest 90L. Invest for an area NHC would like to INVEST-igate further, 90 is a tracking number, and "L" stands for Atlantic Basin.

If it develops, where may it go?

Early model run suggest this system will track NW in the short term and then curve north, northeast being a worry for the shipping lanes.

We'll be watching.

New Tropical Storm Karen

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) named Tropical Storm Karen early Sunday Morning.

Big rain maker for the Eastern Caribbean. They are also watching Tropical Storm Jerry.

Jerry will be a threat to Bermuda. Tropical storm Karen should drop plenty of rain from Northern Venezuela northward across the Lesser Antilles. Lets start with Karen.

NHC determined early Sunday morning that the low pressure area east of Tobago had organized with more thunderstorm activity around its center and classified it as a Tropical Storm.

Alerts

Tropical Storm Force winds of over 39 mph are being felt already across some of the islands. Warnings  have been issued for the following locations.

Tropical Storm Warning

• St. Vincent & the Grenadines
• Trinidad & Tobago
• Grenada & its dependancies

A Tropical Storm Watch (39+ mph winds may be felt in roughly 48 hours), may be issued later this evening for Puerto Rico and other areas along the Windward Islands.

Forecast Track

The track has Karen crossing over from the Atlantic into the Caribbean Sea by Monday. There it will get spun north traveling towards Puerto Rico and nearby islands. This is all due to high pressure sitting to its East. Clockwise winds from the high will push it NNW over the next 36 hours.

Afterwards, Karen will slow down or maybe even stall for a while as it will be caught between two high pressure systems. It will slightly veer west by the end of the week as the next high comes out of the U.S.

Models:

LATE UPDATE: Long range models now hint Karen may head west. How far is yet to be determined.  East Coast should monitor.

Impacts

Rain

• Windward Islands: 3 - 6 inches with some localized areas up to 8 inches
• Northern Venezuela: 1 - 3 inches
• Barbados: 1 - 3 inches
• Leeward Islands: 1 - 3 inches with isolated amounts up to 5 inches.

This rain may lead to flooding, land & mudslides

Tropical Storm Jerry

Jerry will continue on an almost northerly track away from the Bahamas. Unfortunately it may impact Bermuda early next week as a tropical storm. Watches & warnings may be issued there as the system approaches. Last week they dealt with Hurricane Humberto. Hoping Jerry remains weak and slides past.

Another Area to Monitor

A strong tropical wave monitored by NHC for days has emerged out of Western Africa and is now in the Far Eastern Atlantic Ocean. This may quickly become a depression or tropical storm.

Here is the latest:

• Plenty of thunderstorm activity
• Getting better organized
• Atmospheric conditions will support development
• Moving West at 15 - 20 mph
• Cape Verde needs to be on alert as this disturbance may drop heavy rain there
• This is now Invest 90L. Invest for an area NHC would like to INVEST-igate further, 90 is a tracking number, and "L" stands for Atlantic Basin.

If it develops, where may it go?

Early model runs suggest this system will track NW in the short term and then curve north, northeast being a worry for the shipping lanes.

We'll be watching.

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Island Worries

A couple of tropical features could provide more than a damper on islands across the Caribbean over the next few days.

We start with a Tropical Wave East of the Windward Islands. This disturbance is now classified as Invest 99 L. Invest for an area the National Hurricane Center (NHC), would like to INVESTigate further, 99 is a tracking number, and "L" stands for Atlantic Basin.

The latest as of Saturday afternoon:

• The wave is racing westward at 15 - 20 mph. 
• NOAA Recon suggests the low does NOT have a well defined center. Good news as it indicates it is not getting stronger.
• Even if it doesn't develop, heavy rain & gusty winds are still possible cross the Lesser Antilles over the next few days.
• Everyone across the Lesser Antilles & Puerto Rico should monitor the latest developments with this system.
• Chances for developing into a depression or a storm stand at 50% over the next 48 hours and at 60% thru 5 days, per NHC.

If it were to develop, where would it go?

Most early model runs, suggest it will cross over the Windward Islands during the weekend and then curve towards Puerto Rico by the middle of next week. It should then emerge into the Atlantic again. It is forecast to remain over open waters afterwards.

A reminder there is no such thing as the BEST model, if there were such a thing, we would only need one. There are dozens and dozens, each tasked with looking at different things in the atmosphere. Each will provide a forecast track which will be used by NHC experts, to come up with the forecast cone when and if it develops.  At this stage, since nothing has organized, the models are providing a guesstimate.

Disturbance in Caribbean

Latest info:

• Weak area of low pressure sitting over Eastern Cuba with pockets of rain over Jamaica, Haiti & Dom. Republic.
• As of 2 pm, NHC says ZERO chance it can turn into a depression or a storm
• The potential for heavy rain exists and that could lead to flooding, land & mudslides, across Haiti, Dom. Republic & Eastern Cuba, through the weekend.

Wave across West Coast of Africa

It is presently night time across West Africa and thus used infrared Satellite imagery.  This allows us to see cloud cover without a light source. Notice the area of clouds right along the coast. This is the area NHC is monitoring.

2 pm Update

• NHC is giving this tropical wave a 50% chance to become a depression or a storm once it moves over water during the next 48 hours. Chances skyrocket to 90% over a period of 5 days.
• Models are still sketchy in this extremely early phase.
• Need to wait once it develops to get a real good idea where it may end up.
• It's over 2000 miles away and there's plenty of time to monitor.

We'll be watching

Tropical Storm Jerry?

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is monitoring a Tropical Depression in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean poised to become Tropical Storm Jerry.

This is just one of four areas NHC is watching. They include from left to right:

• Depression Imelda over Texas. It was quickly upgraded Tuesday at 1:00 pm Eastern time, and by 1:30 pm it had made landfall near Freeport, Texas. It has since weakened but it's expected to drop over a foot of rain in some spots and that could lead to flooding.
• Hurricane Humberto aiming for Bermuda is now a major system category three. A hurricane warning is already in place for Bermuda. It could come close to the island on Wednesday.
• Tropical Depression #10 - More info below
• Tropical Wave off the West Coast of Africa, has a 20% chance for development

Tropical Depression #10

 

NHC classified this area of clouds and rain as Depression #10 on Tuesday after they said it looked slightly better organized, with more developing thunderstorms, moving over warm waters and with little shear. It has the potential to grow stronger. A recon mission is planned for Thursday.

Forecast Cone

The official cone from NHC, has high pressure pushing it northwest and becoming Tropical Storm Jerry early Wednesday morning.It is then expected to reach hurricane status by Friday, very close to the Leeward Islands. It will then continue its northwesterly track staying very close to Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Turks & Caicos, and Southeastern Bahamas. All these areas need to monitor the system. The cone is also reflecting a more gradual turn to the NW once in the Western Atlantic.

Models

The forecast cone is based on an average of all the models, but in this case, the track is not a unanimous consent. The models are split with just about half turning the system away from land areas by the weekend and the rest staying the course. As of this update, NHC is keeping the cone on a Northwesterly track,

Optimism

Something else we look at, are the features surrounding the system. One of those is called shear, or very strong upper winds that help cut down the tops of developing thunderstorms inside the system. This can weaken it or destroy it all together.

It appears that over the weekend very strong shear comes out of the Eastern Seaboard and meets this tropical system head on. It could completely veer it away or debilitate it tremendously. We'll be watching.

Potential Storm #9

As of Thursday afternoon the National Hurricane Center (NHC) began issuing advisories on the disturbance sitting over the Bahamas. They are calling it Potential Storm #9. 

It remains highly disorganized, but models are insisting it will at least reach tropical storm status this weekend. By then it will be impacting land areas.

 What is a Potential Storm?

  

In order to give areas that will be impacted by this system a little extra time to prepare, NHC uses the designation Potential Storm. This way they can issue watches and warnings much earlier to help warn those in the path.

Watches and Warnings

As of late Thursday night, parts of the NW Bahamas are under Tropical Storm Warnings. This means they could start seeing winds over 39 mph in 36 hours. This is so unfortunate since they are still reeling from the impacts of Dorian.

Palm Beach, Martin, St.Lucie, and Indian River Counties are under a tropical storm watch, but that is just for the Coastal Waters. This means winds over 39 mph can impact the offshore waters in 48 hours.

However, from Jupiter to Titusville, a Tropical Storm watch is in effect for the land area.

Where is it going?

High pressure will start to push the system NW Friday morning and by evening it should be moving over Nassau and Marsh Harbor.  By Saturday morning it's expected to turn fully tropical and be named Humberto. It will continue to move northwest making landfall somewhere along Florida's East Coast. The cone starts by Dania Beach. Be prepared for the possibility of heavy rain and gusty winds on and off through Sunday for all South Florida.

Storm Advisories May be Issued Later today

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is closely monitoring a disturbance over the Central, and Southeastern Bahamas. They may start issuing advisories on this system later today.

Latest Data:

• The disturbance, better known as Invest 95L, continues to drop in pressure and is looking better organized on satellite imagery. NHC adds that conditions are becoming favorable for a depression or a storm to form within 48 hours. 
• If it continues to show signs of further development, NHC may start issuing advisories before the system actually comes together. This will give people in the path of the system, extra time to prep.
• It is moving to the NW at around 5 - 10 mph. On this track it will travel towards the NW Bahamas and the Florida Peninsula
• The NW Bahamas should expect heavy rain and gusty winds through Friday.
• Florida may see rain and gusty winds starting on Friday. It will all depend on where the disturbance finally ends up.

Models

Tricky forecast

When you see models fan out like this, it means there are too many variables presently for them to get a good handle on what is happening in the atmosphere and how all those features may play out over a period of 5 days..

Lets take a look at a few, starting with the GEM:

This models places the system over South Florida by Saturday.

The Euro:

This model takes the system over the NW Bahamas late Saturday into Sunday morning.

The GFS

Places a weaker system in the Gulf of Mexico late Sat/early Sun.

With all these different outcomes, NHC may have to issue Potential Storm Advisories, which means they know something will develop, they just can't get a handle on where or how strong it may be.

The NW Bahamas will be drenched again even if nothing pans out from this disturbance. If it intensifies, then you can add strong winds to the mix.

For South Florida, and the rest of the state, the Best Case Scenario will be some heavy downpours this weekend and breezy conditions. Worst case could be a named system.

As soon as we get info from NHC, we'll pass it along.

We'll be watching

Wave to Watch

A vigorous wave is sitting over the Southeastern Bahamas and Turks & Caicos with plenty of rain. It has the potential to develop further as it moves WNW over the following days. This is just one of three areas being monitored by the National Hurricane Center.

As of late Wednesday night, Wave number 1, has high chances for growth, number 2, has fizzled out, and number 3, is holding on with a better chance for organization over the weekend. We will concentrate on the first.

Wave #1

What we know

 The wave extends from the SE Bahamas north into the Atlantic waters.

• It has plenty of moisture and is causing heavy rain in many areas. 
• For the time being, an area of low pressure in the upper levels of the atmosphere is sitting over Florida. It will keep the wave from growing. These strong winds act as a blade cutting down the high cloud tops from developing thunderstorms. As long as this is present, the wave will not develop into something stronger. However, that upper low is moving away and it will open the door for the wave to possibly become a depression/storm by the end of the week.  
• Where can the wave develop?  The graphic above shows an area highlighted in red (this is NOT a cone) this is where NHC thinks it could come together during the next 5 days. The bottom line is that it could organize anywhere from the Bahamas to the Gulf of Mexico.
• A recon plane is on stand-by on Thursday to check out this wave.
• The wave has been designated Invest 95L. Invest for an area NHC would like to INVESTigate further, 95 is a tracking number, and "L" stands for the Atlantic Basin.

Models

Most of the very early model runs show high pressure to the East of the wave pushing it towards the northwest. It will be moving over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream and that could allow it to strengthen at anytime.  Keep an eye on a front moving to the southeast, it could trap the system over the Gulf of Mexico pouring rain for a few days. Even if it doesn't develop, many areas across the state will see soggy weather..

Rain Totals

 

A look ahead over 5 days, suggests the NW Bahamas receiving between 2 and 4 inches of rain. This will surely add to their woes.South Florida could get between 1 and almost 4 inches.

The Bottom Line

 

Monitor the wave, it may become a depression by the end of the week. It is poised to drench parts of the Bahamas & South Florida as it crosses into the Gulf of Mexico sometime over the weekend. It may stall along Florida's Big Bend and drench the state.

We'll be watching

The Peak of Hurricane Season

September 10th marks the height of activity in the Atlantic Basin for tropical systems. True to form, the National Hurricane Center (NHC), is tracking one tropical storm and three tropical waves.

After this date, we should slowly see a decline in the amount of tropical systems spawned by Mother Nature. However for South Florida our season peaks in mid October. The entire season ends November 30th. By the way, hurricane season is a man-made timeline.

In order for storms to form they need at least 80° of water temperature. This usually happens between June & November but if the waters heat up to that threshold before or after the season... a system can happen at anytime.

Activity Now

NHC is tracking Tropical Storm Gabrielle heading into the cold waters of the Northern Atlantic. It should bother no one, although its remnants may impact the United Kingdom in a few days.

There are three other waves making their way through the Atlantic moving east to west. As you know, tropical waves are nothing more than an area of clouds and rain. Dozens and dozens come out of the west coast of Africa every year and maybe a handful grow to be something stronger.

Wave # 1

This wave has barely come off the coast of Africa and NHC is already giving it a 20% chance that it could become a depression or a storm once it reaches the area highlighted in yellow over a period of 5 days. Note: This yellow area is NOT a forecast cone, but rather the area NHC thinks something could develop.

Where is it headed?

Models at this point (when nothing has organized) are just giving us a guesstimate. In this case, the GFS model shows the possibility of a strong system over So FL by Friday Sep 20th.  Again, this model is giving a very long range outlook without anything having formed. Models need a good starting point in order to provide a good ending point. So far this system is just a blob of clouds and rain emerging from the African continent.  I am providing you with this info so you can monitor its progress.  Once it organizes, you will have a better idea of where it may be headed.

Wave #2

This wave is now known as Invest94L. Invest for an area NHC would like to INVESTigate further, 94 is a tracking number, and "L" stands for the Atlantic Basin.  The invest has a 30% chance for growth in the yellow area. Even if it doesn't develop it could dump some rain across the Lesser Antilles.

There are only a handful of models running at this point and they basically place the system near the islands by the weekend. It is then expected to fizzle out. We'll be watching.

Wave # 3

This wave is sitting north of Dominican Republic and is slowly moving to the Bahamas and South Florida. If it doesn't fall apart, it could be over the area highlighted in yellow by the end of the week. It has a very small chance to develop. Once there, it will be over land with some strong upper level winds bothering it.

What to Expect

If the wave does not fall apart, it could provide more rain for the Bahamas on Thursday and then a chance for downpours across South Florida by Friday and maybe into Saturday. If the wave is still around by Sunday, it should be in the Gulf of Mexico and then be a worry for he Gulf States.

We'll be watching

2 Most Asked Questions

These are the two top questions asked regarding Dorian. Still a strong system impacting the NW Bahamas

This incredibly strong storm has been beating down Grand Bahama Island for over 24 hours. For a comparison, Andrew was a Cat 5 system that plowed over So. Miami Dade Co in only 3 hours.

What can make a hurricane stop?
As big and powerful as hurricanes can be, they do not move on their own. They need something else even bigger to push them along. For most systems in the Atlantic Basin it's the Bermuda High.

Lets go back in time to last Friday:

• The western edge of the Bermuda High was shoving Dorian WNW. 
• There was a front with winds coming out of the SW, over the Southeastern USA. (These two things are also known as steering winds since they can steer the hurricane around). 
• You could see the open road in the atmosphere that Dorian would travel. All models reflected this, including the dreaded cone of concern.

On Monday: 

• The Bermuda high began to retreat away from Dorian, and the front faded away. This meant Dorian was left adrift.  At first,  the system slowed down all the way to a crawl until it eventually stopped moving at 5 pm Monday over Grand Bahama Island.  
• Today,  stronger upper level winds out of the Gulf, started to draw Dorian away from the Bahamas. 

We've already seen the influence of those winds as Dorian has begun to move at 2 mph as of the 11 am Tuesday advisory. That speed should increase later today.

Stalling is very normal in hurricanes when they lose their steering currents. A recent example of a stalling system was hurricane Harvey.  Harvey History Here


What can South FL expect: 

Very little impacts as the system tracks NW:

• From time to time, we may get a line of heavy rain with very brief windy conditions, and then back to sunny. 
• As of the 11am advisory Broward Co. is NO LONGER under a Tropical Storm Watch. Good news for us. 

Now I urge you, no, beg you to please do what you can to help our friends, neighbors, & families to our east. They have been devastated.

I thank you for all your questions. Here's to hoping we don't do this again.

Dorian Now a Cat 5

As of 11 am Sunday, winds at 180 mph with 200 mph gusts. Wherever that moves over, it will be leveled. 

The cone still begins at the Palm Beach co line to points north along Florida's East Coast.  Please see impacts section below for watches and warnings .  The National Hurricane Center still expects Dorian to take a turn northward.  Extremely Dangerous Dorian hitting Abaco Island & Great Bahama later today.  

• At this moment from NHC:

• Dorian is a monster with well defined eye. Impacting NW Bahamas now
• Still in low shear environment, which means no strong winds in the upper levels to weaken it
• High pressure to the East to remain in place through today pushing Dorian due west. It should stop tonight allowing Dorian to slow to a crawl for next 48 hrs
• The turn NW is now expected in 2 days 
• Hurricane Watch from Broward / Palm Beach Co line to points north. This means hurricane force winds can arrive in the area in 48 hours.
• Tropical Storm Warning from Broward / Palm Beach Co line north to Sebastian. This means Tropical Storm force winds between 39-73 mph can be expected in 36 hours.
• Tropical Storm watch in place for Broward Co. This means Tropical storm force winds can be expected in 48 hrs.

What next?

Dorian will continue to slow down even further as the high pressure system that was pushing west has backed off. Hurricanes don't move on their own, so its going to drift over the NW Bahamas until something else pushes it along. That something else will be a front coming out the Southeastern US. It may take a couple of days for that to happen. Dorian will keep punishing the NW Bahamas until then.

Hopefully the front will shove Dorian north starting on Wednesday. KEEP ALERT. With a system this strong anything is possible. Have never seen anything like it. Even though So FL is not in the cone, we can still get impacted here.

Impacts

NW Bahamas:  Per NHC, "Catastrophic" conditions in Abaco today.  Later into Grand Bahamas. Heavy rainfall. 12 - 24 inches possible with some getting as much as 30 inches.  A dangerous and destructive storm surge of 18 - 23 feet high. Life threatening Flash Floods expected in Abaco Islands  & Grand Bahama through Monday.

Central Bahamas: Winds with rainfall amounts  2 - 4 inches with some areas as much as 6. Some gusty winds for you.

SE Bahamas & Turks & Caicos: You should not see any major impacts but some spotty rain with breezy conditions are possible.


South Florida: If the cone were to remain as is, here are the possible impacts. The Keys may see some moments of windy conditions of less then 39 mph.  Broward and Miami-Dade could get on & off gusty winds of 39 to 73 mph. Highest probability now is for Broward.

The Keys: Some storms are possible. The rain could lead to street flooding. Winds up to 40 mph at times. Higher surf.

Broward: Tropical Storm Watch issued for you. You are out of the cone but you can expect some tropical storm force winds of over 40 mph by Monday night. This is why NHC has issued a storm watch. Potential for heavy rain is there as well as flooding.  Usually when this happens, you are urged to protect your property with shutters.  You know your property best, what it can and cannot withstand. 

Miami-Dade: Winds over 40 mph at times. Possible heavy rain as much as 2 - 4 inches with isolated spots getting 6". This could lead to flooding, specially with the ground saturated from recent rainfall.  Storm surge not expected. We may still see some tropical storm watches and warnings issued. Usually when this happens, you are urged to protect your property with shutters. You know your property best, what it can and cannot withstand.

Bottom line: Hopefully Dorian will continue to move away from FL as it nears. While no direct impact is still expected, hurricanes can cause plenty of trouble far away from their center. Feeder bands can still move over much of South Florida with the potential some winds and rain.

Please monitor the hurricane for any additional changes both good or bad.