One wave done, still watching another

A wave close to Florida over the last few days moved into the area on Thursday bringing with it pockets of heavy rainfall. The remnants of this wave have the potential to bring us on and off downpours through the weekend.

 Thursday's rainfall totals

The wave brought us heavy rain in some areas and barely touched others. This is very typical of disorganized systems. We could see more in the next few days.

Soggy Set-Up

 

You can see all the clouds lingering across the State, that is your wave. It wasn't supposed to move in until the weekend, but it sped up and brought us the rain.  There is also a low pressure spin in the Gulf, but its in the upper levels of the atmosphere. In the Atlantic we are watching high pressure staying put. A lot of features that can make for wet days.

The models suggest the high and low will drag in plenty of tropical moisture from the Caribbean. It will get funneled here and as long as the high and the low don't move, the rain should keep coming.

Forecast Rain Totals

Our in-house model suggests anywhere between 1.53" over Havana to almost 3 inches in Ft. Lauderdale. NWS says spotty areas may see up to 5" or more through Tuesday. This will lead to street flooding in low lying areas.

Still watching a wave in the Atlantic

Meanwhile in the middle of the Atlantic a second wave, now a broad area of low pressure, is moving towards the Lesser Antilles. NHC is giving it a 70% chance it could become a depression or a storm over the next 5 days in the area highlighted in red.

Models:

High pressure will push the low towards the islands.The low will try to avoid the Saharan Dust, which usually starves systems for moisture. There's a plume ahead of it and one behind it. If it can overcome this, it may organize a few hundred miles before the islands.

 

Once it nears the islands it will quickly run into some strong upper winds (shear), they can cut down the developing cloud tops in a storm system. This may weaken whatever develops, or defeat it altogether.  All we can do is wait and see what actually develops.