Active Tropics

The weekend starts with a trio of tropical activity. One area dumping rain across Florida, a new storm develops in the Atlantic, and a disturbance spins up in the Gulf of Mexico.

New at this hour:

• Brand new storm by the name of Dorian to the North of French Guiana in South America.
• Low pressure near the Lake Okeechobee area
• A disturbance just south of Texas 

New Tropical Storm Dorian

Early Saturday, NHC determined that a low pressure system roughly 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles, had developed more thunderstorm activity and was classified as Tropical Depression #5. It developed a closed center of circulation with winds to 35 mph. At 5 pm, the winds passed 39 mph and was classified as a Tropical Storm.

Where is it going?

High pressure will push it NW and aim for the Lesser Antilles and eventually stay on a course that could include Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic, and Haiti.

For the moment, strong upper winds are keeping the storm in check but over the next few days, that shear will weaken allowing it a chance to grow stronger. Everyone along this path should get ready for a possible strong event as it is forecast to be a hurricane while it nears the islands early next week.  Cuba, Jamaica, the Bahamas, and South Florida should monitor closely.

Low over Florida. Sat loops courtesy TropicalTidbits

The area of clouds is sitting mostly to the east of Florida with the center of the spin around Lake Okeechobee. This low pressure system is causing widespread downpours mainly over South Florida. Because the center is sitting over land today, we don't expect it to develop any further in the short term. Once it moves over the Western Atlantic, it could become a depression or a storm as it moves away from us.  NHC is still giving it a 90% chance that it could develop over the next 5 days. Even if it doesn't, it could provide some heavy rainfall from the NE Bahamas, west into Florida.

Yesterday a recon mission was planned to investigate this system, that mission has been cancelled, with a new one set for Sunday.

Model Data (Courtesy TropicalTidbits)

This is Invest 98L. Most models agree the low will remain over Florida a day or two, then finally getting pushed out into the Atlantic possibly late Sunday.

Another disturbance is being watched

NHC says a low pressure system has formed along the Texas and Louisiana coastline. It is trying to get its act together and has a 10% chance of turning into a depression or a storm over 48 hours.
Even if it doesn't develop, (it may be too close to land for that to happen) it could still drop plenty of rain leading to street flooding.

Models

This is now Invest90L. These are extremely early model runs. They suggest the low will meander across the Gulf States possibly looping back into Northern Florida. A reminder these early models are just providing a guesstimate. Keep monitoring.

We'll be watching