Dorian, a So FL Concern

Tropical Storm Dorian is now in the Eastern Caribbean Sea. It may not be until Friday that it reenters the Atlantic waters. What happens then is still uncertain.

The Satellite view shows a small, compact system that has just crossed over the Windward Islands into the The Caribbean Sea.

Here are the main points

• Dorian remains small & compact and its inner workings are not well organized. It remains as a tropical storm through its forecast.  ((Remember intensity forecasting is very difficult. This may change as atmospheric conditions around the storm change)).
• The Storm will dump rain over the Central Lesser Antilles. Some areas could get up to 10 inches of rain. This will lead to flooding.
• Hurricane watches are now up for Puerto Rico and for the Eastern part of the Dominican Republic. Haiti , you need to monitor
• The National Hurricane Center said as of 8 am this morning, "wind and rain impacts are possible for the Bahamas & Florida later this week (for Bahamas) and the weekend (for Florida)."

Dorian's Health

It has been battling dry air around it. This has taken a lot of moisture away from Dorian keeping it from getting stronger even though it has been moving over warm waters. The wind shear (strong upper level winds that can cut a storm down) has also been light, giving Dorian a chance to grow stronger but it has yet to do so. 

Where is it going and how strong will it be?

Dorian is being pushed by high pressure sitting across the middle of the Atlantic Ocean. Believe it or not, as strong and powerful as hurricanes can be they do not move on their own, they need something else to shove it along... in this case it's the Bermuda high.  This is a huge dome of air (heavier air than average) wind clockwise spinning winds. This is making Dorian move towards Puerto Rico & Dominican Republic.

11 am Cone of Concern

It appears Dorian may actually go in between Puerto Rico and Dominican Republic. Will the high terrain of Hispaniola help to weaken it further remains to be seen. (Dom. Republic has the largest peak in all Caribbean , Pico Duarte, at over 10 thousand feet tall. This can help disrupt Dorian's structure). As of the 11 am advisory, NHC keeps Dorian as a tropical storm as it passes this area. This may be good news as far as weakening Dorian, but it may be bad news for our neighbors in Dom. Republic. Dorian may slow down and dump plenty of rain that could lead to flooding, land & mud slides. Shear should pick up as well by then also helping to keep it weak.

The Bahamas and Florida

Even though the cone suggests the system can be anywhere in Florida by Sunday morning, where exactly it will make landfall and how strong it will be are still unknowns. Its future path and strength will depend on how much / little interaction it has with Dominican Republic & Puerto Rico. As of this moment they can expect between 4 - 6 inches of rain with higher totals in some areas.

• Once near the Southeastern Bahamas things begin to change.
• Shear weakens
• It moves over some of the warmest waters in the Atlantic Basin with temps hovering between 85 and 90 degrees. Higher in some spots
• It may allow for the system to breath a bit better letting it get stronger. How much is uncertain.

Bottom Line

Bahamas and South Florida should monitor

Check your supplies and be ready if and when watches and warnings are issued for us

We'll be watching