Dorian: What you need to know

UPDATED IMPACTS SECTIO LOWER IN THE PAGE.  Some of the graphics may be slow to upload due to increased demand. 

We are all apprehensive about hurricane Dorian in the Atlantic waters aiming for the State, possibly land falling as a major storm. I will try to provide you with as much info as I can to help you prepare just in case it ends up somewhere in our neighborhood.

Where is Dorian now

I will focus on WSVN's viewing area, that being Broward, Miami Date Counties, and the Florida Keys. We also have very loyal viewers in the Bahamas.

• It's presently a Category 2 system. Winds over 100 mph
• Roughly under 800 miles away from the NW Bahamas and South Florida.
• It remains compact with a small wind field. Hurricane winds over 75 mph, extend outward 25 miles.

Where is it headed?

The cone by next Monday has the eye of the storm, or the center, anywhere between Georgia Coast  and a few miles north of Key West. The forward speed has slowed down. DO NOT FOCUS on the little hurricane icon, that just shows the category the system may be on that particular day. Dorian promises to be a Category 3 - 4 offshore Florida on Sunday night. Those are winds in excess of 130 mph.

What's pushing it here?  Believe it or not, as strong and powerful as hurricanes are, they do not move on their own. They need a larger system to do that and in this case it's the Bermuda High. The high will continue moving to the East Coast of the US. The issue encountered by most models, is trying to figure out how fast the high will move and will it head north or stay on a firm westerly track.

To make things even more complicated, it appears the high may stop pushing Dorian West on Monday. This will make the hurricane slow down and possibly linger somewhere over the coast. It could make a turn north or northward, lets keep our fingers crossed. If it makes the turn early , South Florida may be OK, if it doesn't it could be a terrible scenario with a major system traveling north along I-95 from South to North Florida.

Models

I've heard about the European model and the American (GFS) model. Which is best?  Yes, these are the two most popular but if one was best, then we'd only need one.

There are dozens and dozens of models used to determine where the eye of a storm will end up. Each is tasked to look at different items in the atmosphere. Each provides their own track which can have a hundred mile error on either side.  The experts at the National Hurricane Center take all these models into account and average them out to give us the cone of concern.

The models will continue to shift over the next 24 to 48 hours, forcing the cone to move up and down on the state. Need to keep monitoring.

By the way, models are like athletes, outperforming one year and stinking up the joint the next.

Where is it going to hit and when? Seeing how large the cone is and how strong the hurricane may be as it nears Florida here is a break down. Lets plan for worst case scenario.

Turks and Caicos, SE & Central Bahamas: You may see the risk of storm surge by Friday, specially in the Central Bahamas. Rain amounts 1 - 2" with some spots up to 4". Keep an eye out just in case Dorian tries to surprise you. The center should remain to your north.

NW Bahamas:  A hurricane watch is now in effect for you. This means hurricane force winds can arrive in 48 hours. Get your last minute preps done. By Sunday, the winds will start to pick with some pockets of heavy rain. Between 6 - 12 inches with areas as much as 18.  Both will increase in frequency and strength. It may stay very stormy through late Monday. The rain may cause Flash Flooding. Strong dangerous  surge of 10 -15 feet above normal possible along with large destructive waves.

Broward and Miami Dade: By Monday evening the heavy rain should start to move in and winds will pick up. The seas will be choppy.  Some rain forecast models are calling for 6 - 12 inches with some spotty areas getting almost 12. This will surely lead to stranding water. If you live in an area prone to flooding you may need to seek safe shelter with friends or family in another location. Life threatening storm surge is also a possibility. Evacuations may be ordered.

The Keys: As of Thursday night, you are in the cone from slightly north of Key West. You too could see hurricane force winds, heavy rain, and storm surge. Make sure you are ready to evacuate if ordered to do so. Even if you are out the cone, storms can impact areas hundreds of miles away from the center. Please prepare accordingly.

When will they issue watches and warnings for us? 

Generally watches are issued 48 hours in advance of a system arriving with a warning issued when a system is 36 hours out.  NHC will issue these accordingly. This will be your cue to finish your last minute preps. Also, if indeed we are looking at a major hurricane impacting us, evacuation orders may be issued. Be ready to go if ordered.

Should I be getting ready now? Yes. Review your supplies and get what you need. I usually suggest you put up your shutters once watches or warnings are issued, but you know best. If it takes you a long time, you may want to start early to give you additional time for preparations.

I sincerely hope this system somehow weakens or shifts direction before reaching Florida and all this was just an exercise in readiness. But if it isn't, it pays to be ready.

We'll be watching