Thursday, August 28, 2014

The Tropical "Not So Fab" Four

August is the second most active hurricane month, with the peak of the season coming September 10th. At the moment NHC is still monitoring 4 areas, none of which appear to be a threat to anyone.

The latest on Hurricane Cristobal, is that its threading the needle between Bermuda and the east coast of the US.

It should only be a concern for the shipping lanes. It will however cause some strong surf and rip currents across New England and the Middle Atlantic States.

The other three areas NHC is considering are a bit less glamorous.

  • The X near Mexico is an area of disturbed weather slowly moving west. It has a minimal chance for growth. Even if it does not develop it should provide some drought relief for Northern Mexico and Southern Texas.

  • The second X in the eastern Caribbean is a Tropical Wave moving west with little promise. NHC is giving it a small chance for growth once it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula.

  • The most interesting feature is the third X over Western Africa, also an area of clouds and rain. This feature has been over land for days and remains in the cross hairs of NHC. They are giving it a moderate chance for development once it reaches the Eastern Atlantic. The area highlighted in orange is where it could become a depression or a tropical storm.

The reason why I'm watching this one more carefully is because we are in the middle of Cape Verde Season.

What is Cape Verde Season?
It is a season within the Hurricane season usually lasting from August to late September.

This is according to NASA:
Systems tend to form in the vicinity of those islands and have a reputation of making landfall in the U.S. They usually develop from tropical waves that form in the African savanna during the wet season

The average Atlantic Hurricane season brings with it approximately two Cape Verde hurricanes. These hurricanes are usually the most intense and the biggest storms of the season because they develop so far to the east and can travel over a large area of warm, open ocean waters that help power them. There are also no land forms in the way to slow tropical cyclones if they form near the Cape Verde Islands. 

Cape Verde tropical cyclones also tend to be the longest-lived storms, because of the huge area of open ocean they have to move through. Some have even moved into the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico.

Hopefully we will stay quiet.

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