Saturday, September 6, 2014

Three in the Tropics, plus a few waves

The weekend kicks off with NHC keeping tabs on three areas in the tropics. One hasn't even left the West Coast of Africa and yet, its still being monitored. The features watched stretch from the FL/GA coast to the Far Eastern Atlantic:

Lets review each starting with the one closest  to home. This is what NHC is saying:

A weak area of low pressure near the coast of Georgia continues to
produce disorganized cloudiness and showers, mainly over the
Atlantic coastal waters.  Development of this system appears
unlikely while it drifts northeastward over the southeastern United
States during the next couple of days. After that time, this
system could merge with a frontal zone over the western Atlantic
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Tropical Waves:
However, just to our South there are a couple of waves capable of sending plenty of moisture our way that could enhance our chances for rain Saturday and Sunday.

Waves are very difficult to forecast as they can grow rather quickly or fall apart just as fast. We should watch this rainy mess closely.

The second area is just off the Cape Verde Islands in the Far Eastern Atlantic. Here's the latest from NHC:

Shower activity associated with an area of low pressure a few
hundred miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands has increased
and become a little better organized this morning.

However, significant development of this system is not expected due to a unfavorable dry air mass that prevails over the tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Even though chances are minimal for growth, NHC is issuing model runs.

If it develops, it should remain as an open water system.

Now for the third and most interesting area to watch. It hasn't made it off the Coast of Africa but it has the highest chance for development.  This is what NHC says:

A tropical wave is forecast to move off of the west coast of Africa
by late Sunday. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for gradual development of this system early next week
while it moves toward the west or west-northwest over the eastern
tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

In this satellite view you can see both features, the tropical wave over Africa and the broad low near the Cape Verde Islands.

This type of activity is common for this time of year as we get close to the peak of hurricane season.

Over the last 100 years we average almost 100 named systems for the month of September. The peak arriving September 10th.

Lets hope the second part of the season will be as quiet as the first for us.

By the way, the peak of the season for South Florida comes a bit later in October. Keep those fingers crossed.

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