Saturday, August 23, 2014

Next Depression?

Brief Update:

As of early Saturday morning the area of disturbed weather near Dominican Republic looks a little better organized. Heavy downpours are impacting Haiti, Dominican Republic, and Puerto Rico. These areas remain under flood advisories.

A Recon plane is investigating the disturbance in search of the illusive center of circulation.

Without a good fix or starting point, the models have a tough time generating a possible track.

Regardless of intensification heavy rain and strong gusty winds can be expected over that area through Sunday.

The high terrain of Dominican Republic is playing a key role in keeping this Invest from organizing.

The highest peak in all of the Caribbean is here at over 10,000 feet. While this might be good news keeping the disturbance in check, its also bad news as the rain will just keep coming down over Hispaniola causing floods, land, and mudslides.

What Next?:
For the time being all these forecast tracks can be taken with a grain of salt. These are "best guess" outlooks given the sketchy information given. Until a good center is found, the model runs are highly suspect. They basically keep the system moving NW until Sunday and then most tracks fan out. Some into the Atlantic, others over Florida and a handful into the Gulf of Mexico.

Next in line will be the Southeastern Bahamas later today. There will be enough warm water here for some strengthening.

It will also be farther away from Dominican Republics's high terrain and the conditions in the atmosphere will be a bit more favorable for growth.

 NHC says: Winds to tropical storm force and
heavy rains are expected to spread over the southeastern Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the central Bahamas through

Interests in the Turks and Caicos and all of the Bahamas should monitor the progress of this disturbance, since tropical storm watches and warnings could be required with little advance

European Model:

This is the European model run, which in my opinion has been handling tropical system more accurately this season. You will notice two tight swirls, one in the Pacific next to Mexico and the other east of Florida. This is 96 hours out and shows a possible strong tropical storm or hurricane in the area north of the Bahamas. Fortunately this model keeps whatever develops away from us. Lets hope it pans out.

We'll have more once recon data from the ring flight starts coming in.

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