New Tropical Depression

NHC has upgraded the area of clouds and rain near the Southeastern Bahamas to a depression, the fourth of the season. For the moment the Southeastern and Central Bahamas as well as the Turks and Caicos islands could see between 4-8 inches of rain.
 
LOCATION...21.8N 72.3W

ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM NE OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM ESE OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

Even though the system doesn't look that organized on satellite imagery, the afternoon recon mission finally found the illusive center they've been looking for the last 2 days.

Here area the advisories issued:

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED
ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED
ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND FOR THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG
ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR.

The official forecast cone is a blend of many models.
Some of the models keep this system from intensifying over the next 48 hours, but after that there is a chance for further growth.

Most show the Bermuda high moving east and allowing TD 4 to slowly curve out to sea.    However, according to NHA, "there is significant disagreement in
the timing and sharpness of the turn in this and previous dynamical
model cycles.

Currently the GFDL and GFS are along the western
edge of the guidance envelope showing a more westward track and
a slower motion at day 5. The ECMWF, GEFS mean, and HWRF show a
sharper turn and a more northeastward motion by day 5 on the east
side of the guidance envelope. "

They also say , "Given the spread in the guidance and the recent
formation of the system, confidence in the details of the track
forecast is lower than normal."  Which means the cone can drift further east or west over the next couple of days.  Lets keep watching this one just in case.