Wednesday, August 27, 2014

Four areas of concern. Are we ok?

A look at the enhanced colorized satellite imagery shows a great deal of cloud cover and storm activity. It is after all near the peak of hurricane season, that being September 10th.  The first thing you will notice is a big spin east of Georgia, that is hurricane "Cristobal".  It should remain as an open water system moving north. It will only be a worry for the shipping lanes.

Other Features:

  • There is also a small dot near Texas in the Gulf of Mexico, this is a weak area of low pressure that could grow quickly. A recon mission is on stand by to check it out. 
  • In the middle of the Atlantic there is another area of clouds and rain, a wave that has a small chance for development.
  • The fourth area is still over Africa.
  • All the other clouds and rain areas over the Caribbean and Central America are due to weak waves.

We know what to expect from "Cristobal", lets see what NHC is saying about the other three areas.

Low in Gulf:
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a weak low has increased today.

Additional development is possible before it moves inland over southern Texas and northern Mexico on Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Here are the latest model runs on this feature.

Wave about 600 miles east of the Lesser Antilles:
Disorganized cloudiness and showers at this hour. It will move west without incident until it nears the Yucatan Peninsula where environmental conditions could become favorable for some development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Wave over the West Coast of Africa:
This is the most interesting feature. NHC believes that by the time it moves offshore into the Eastern Atlantic Ocean, conditions appear to be favorable for some development.  This is after all Cape Verde Season where most of the tropical activity forms out here. We'll be watching.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Are we ok?
As of this moment, and through the holiday weekend, we remain free of any tropical threat. But Mother Nature always has the last word so check back from time to time in case we get a curve ball thrown at us.

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