Tuesday, August 26, 2014

Tropical Trouble

September is the most active month for tropical activity,  peaking on September 10th, but August comes in right behind in second place.

As of Tuesday morning NHC is monitoring four areas in the Atlantic basin. We begin with "Cristobal". As of early morning it was a minimal hurricane with 75 mph winds heading NE.

This is not a good looking system. It lacks the typical symmetrical look of a healthy storm.

The western side is still rain and cloud free while most of the rain and gusty winds remain to the east.

Recon planes still show hurricane force winds and most models are forecasting some strengthening.

There is plenty of rain associated with north/south slant of "Cristobal". Some of that rain is still impacting the Southeastern Bahamas, Hispaniola, and Eastern Cuba.

It should by pass Bermuda and remain as a worry only for the shipping lanes.

"Cristobal" will generate some high swells across the Atlantic waters making it rough for mariners.

These waves will also bring along the threat of rip currents up and down the US Coast.

Boaters and swimmers are asked to take extra care when venturing into the Atlantic waters over the next 48 hours, until the threat subsides.

By the weekend it should arrive in the cold waters of the Northern Atlantic otherwise known as the hurricane graveyard.

Aside from "Cristobal", there are three other features worth mentioning. We'll begin with the area in the Gulf of Mexico.

1) This is an area of clouds and rain, not too significant, but it is sitting over very warm waters that could allow it to grow. For the moment atmospheric conditions are not favorable for development so NHC is giving it only a 10% chance for growth over 5 days.

2) The x in the middle of the Atlantic is about 900 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. It has some showers and thunderstorms. It had a better chance for growth on Monday, but as of today, environmental conditions are not expected to be favorable for significant development. That could change in a few days. NHC is giving it 20% chance for development through 5 days. If it does organize it may do so over the area marked in yellow.

3)  The third area monitored hasn't even emerged from the West Coast of Africa, but NHC thinks it has the potential for organization. They say a tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa
late this week, and conditions appear to be favorable for some development thereafter. NHC is giving it a 30% chance for growth. If it develops, it could do so over the area highlighted in orange.

Stay tuned.

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