Monday, June 2, 2014

Tropical Update: Watching rain in Gulf

NHC is still monitoring an area of disturbed weather in the Gulf of Mexico.   From the satellite imagery you can see plenty of clouds and rain moving out of the Yucatan Peninsula and aiming for Florida.

What one looks for in this enhanced color imagery, is where you find the oranges and reds.

These colors represent the heaviest of the rainfall.  All this rain is still to the east of a stretched out area of low pressure extending from Louisiana south to Mexico.

Very little movement is expected from this feature over the next few days.

This is what NHC says: (As of 8 AM)

A stationary trough of low pressure interacting with a large upper-level low is producing widespread cloudiness and disorganized showers over much of eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico and across
the Yucatan Peninsula. 

Environmental conditions are expected to remain unfavorable for the development of this system as it moves little this week.

  • Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
  • Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

While on Sunday, models were hinting at more favorable conditions for storm formation over the next 5 days… now they are backing off and suggesting the present poor conditions will remain through the end of the week.  As long as that Upper Low remains over the trough it should help keep it in check. This is very good news.

But what about the rain?
To determine that, we use another color scheme on our satellite picture. This is the water vapor loop. It detects moisture in the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere.

The colors we look for are the light blues which represent possible light rain, to the deeper oranges, reds, and purples, which tell us there is plenty of moisture capable of tropical downpours.

This means our chances for rain will be going up as some of that moisture gets kicked out in our direction.

This may be the pattern throughout the entire week.

Worry Factor: Extremely low
One word of caution. These disorganized features tend to grow rather quickly specially moving over very warm waters.  Check back in tomorrow just in case the models change their minds.

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