Wednesday, June 4, 2014

Status Quo

This midweek brings us to midway in a developing process.  Could we be seeing the first real tropical activity of the season brewing in the Gulf?

We have two areas to watch.  A disturbance in the Gulf and Tropical Depression Boris in the Pacific side of Mexico.

Here's the latest on the Gulf disturbance from NHC:

A stationary trough of low pressure over the Bay of Campeche is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Strong
upper-level winds will likely inhibit significant development of
this system.  However, this disturbance has the potential to
produce locally heavy rains during the next few days over
portions of southeastern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

For us this just means mostly cloudy skies with a feds showers everyday through the end of the week. By then we may see some of that moisture getting pushed here.

Meanwhile, there is Boris, getting weaker and dumping plenty of rain over Southern Mexico. It's trying to cut across into the Gulf. If it can make it this would be the first time since Cosme did it in 1989. That was the last system to go from the Pacific to the Atlantic Basin.

Even if it falls apart, there is a chance for it to reform in the warm waters of the Gulf. We'll be watching.  So here we are in the middle of a process that only Mother Nature knows the game plan.

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