Friday, June 6, 2014

High Chance for Depression in Gulf

Since the start of the week we've been following an area of disturbed weather in the SW Gulf of Mexico. It has teetered between a 10 - 20% chance of development through much of that time, but yesterday it started getting its act together.

Late Thursday night NHC upped its chances to 30% and then 40%.

Friday morning things got a bit more complicated.  Chances for development now stand at 70%.

The satellite loop shows 2 colors.

Notice the yellow enhanced clouds, those are near the surface and its where you will find the actual low. It is moving west to Mexico.

The white enhanced clouds are moving in the opposite direction pushed along by strong upper level winds. Typically these winds help to keep systems in check but in this case its not happening.

Heavy rains continue to pound Coastal Mexico.

This Radar out of the Yucatan shows a steady band of rain that has been sitting here for days.

Even if this low doesn't develop,  it will not be good news for the Yucatan Peninsula.

They are soaked from a recent Tropical Storm earlier this week that moved in from the Pacific Ocean (Boris).

This new possible depression could add to the misery as it is slowly forecast to move West.

Here's NHC's early note:

Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that the
area of low pressure about 40 miles east of Veracruz, Mexico, has
become a little better defined this morning as it moves slowly
west-northwestward.  However, the associated thunderstorm activity
is currently poorly organized.  A tropical depression could form
before the low reaches the coast of eastern Mexico later today or
tonight. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled
to investigate this system this afternoon. Whether a tropical
depression forms or not, this disturbance could produce heavy rains,
along with life-threatening flash floods and mud slides, over
portions of southeastern and eastern Mexico during the next few

  • Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...70 percent
  • Formation chance through 5 days...medium...70 percent.

Indeed a recon plane will be sent this afternoon to see if there is a closed center of circulation, how strong the winds are, and what other features may be surrounding the low.

If certain parameters are met, we could have our first depression (or even first Tropical Storm) of the Atlantic season.

Here are the latest models:

What does this mean for us?:
Nothing. We will remain in our typical rainy season pattern with sun, heat, humidity, and afternoon storms through the weekend.

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