NHC expects depression to form East of Florida

Recon mission set for Monday, if needed to investigate off shore low.

As we begin to lose some of the satellite detail to darkness, you can still make out the distinct swirl of a tropical low.  Not much has changed since early Sunday morning as it is still meandering over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream. As you know, warm waters of 80 degrees or above is like jet fuel to these tropical engines and there is plenty to be found here.

This low could become the season's first depression or maybe even the first tropical storm. If it does reach tropical storm status. it would be named, "Arthur".

NHC update as of 8pm Sunday night:

• An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance on Monday, if necessary.

• Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area located about 230 miles east of St. Augustine, Florida, remain limited.  

• Environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development during the next few days and a tropical depression is likely to form by mid-week while the system moves slowly southward to southwestward off the east-central coast of Florida.  

• Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
• Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

This is what the local NWS office is saying:

• LOW PRESSURE IS DRIFTING TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA, AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 
• THIS WILL KEEP INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE OVER THE AREA AS WELL AS THE HIGHER CHANCES FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EACH DAY. 

This basically means that while the low remains offshore, we can expect  healthy chance for rain through mid to end of next week.

Computer forecasts (Models)
This low is still INVEST91, or an area of disturbed weather NHC would like to INVESTigate further. At this stage early model runs are initiated and are shown on the spaghetti chart. Keep in mind models do not perform well at this stage because of lack of something definitive to track. As of this moment, most keep whatever develops away from South Florida. That doesn't mean we will not feel some of its effects.

I have provided 2 different spaghetti model charts for comparison. As of this moment, most runs keep the low close until midweek and then push it out to sea due to strong upper level winds.

What can we expect?:

It appears we should see more in the way of cloud cover, with a better chance for rain as some of the moisture associated from the low gets spun out in our direction.