Sunday, June 29, 2014

NHC keeping tabs on a Low

Chances for development continue to grow with area of low pressure East of Jacksonville

On the satellite imagery you can see the swirl sitting just offshore. For the time being it has most of the rain over the Atlantic waters , but in the long run some of those showers and storms will make it onshore.  Wherever you see bright blues and reds, that represents the strongest downpours.

As of Sunday Morning, this is what NHC was saying:

  • A low pressure system located about 230miles east of Jacksonville, Florida, continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms as it moves slowly southward. 
  • Upper-level winds are only marginally favorable, and proximity to dry air to the north of the disturbance could inhibit formation of a tropical  cyclone over the next couple of days.  
  • By Wednesday, however, environmental  conditions are expected to become more conducive for development of this  system while it drifts southward and  meanders offshore of the Florida east coast.  
  • An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system this afternoon, if necessary.
  • Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
  • Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
What next?:

This tropical feature will drift South over the next few days maybe getting as close a couple of hundred miles to the East of Central Florida by Monday or Tuesday. This may be its best chance for organization as it will be sitting over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream. As you know, hot water is like jet fuel for these tropical engines, the hotter, the more energy for intensification.

In the long run, the models suggest strong upper winds will begin to push this area of disturbed weather away from us and into the Northeastern Atlantic.

NHC has deemed this low as INVEST 91. It just means they would like INVESTigate the area a little more and can devote more resources. Once this happens, some early model runs are released and they are reflected in the spaghetti model graphic.

Keep in mind all the models have a very difficult time at this stage of the game since they have very little information to work with.

What can we expect:

High pressure will build in the Gulf of Mexico by Sunday, causing a wind squeeze over Florida.  High pressure has clockwise winds while the low has counter clockwise winds. We will be in the middle of this pressure gradient so expect breezy conditions by early next week.  Clouds will also be on the increase with a better chance for rain.

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