Wednesday, June 20, 2012

What a mess!

Over the last few days I have been following a huge pool of tropical moisture in the Caribbean Sea. This has lead to heavy downpours across Cuba, with flooding reported in the central part of the island. Now, all this rain has arrived here and it could stick around, on and off through, the weekend. (Maybe longer.)

This big mess of rain is expected to slowly move into the Gulf of Mexico, and once there, it could get caught up in strong upper winds and get sent back to Florida. Here is the thinking at NWS:

Models are in slightly better agreement with the evolution of this area of disturbed weather. The ECMWF model  is now agreeing with the GFS, depicting this Low pressure system getting absorbed by a disturbance in the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere .

This will then push the deepest moisture back to Florida, with the heaviest rain aiming for the Central and Northern part of the state.

Either way the wet pattern may be with us even into the early part of next week.

Because of all the heavy rain forecasted you can expect Flood Advisories to be issued at any time.

Meanwhile, NHC is also keeping their eyes on this area of disturbed weather. They say it has a medium chance for development.  You will also notice the tropical storm symbol in the Atlantic, this is "Chris" moving east with NO threat to land, only a worry for the shipping lanes.

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