Saturday, June 23, 2012

Tropical Trouble

UPDATE: It appears the NAVY is already referring to the low in the Gulf as "Debby". We should see advisories by 5 pm

Here is the latest from NHC: We could have "Debby" soon in the Gulf.

BUOY OBSERVATIONS...SATELLITE DATA...AND PRELIMINARY
RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL STORM
MAY BE FORMING IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ABOUT
250 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER.  IF THE PLANE IS ABLE TO IDENTIFY A
WELL-DEFINED SURFACE WIND CIRCULATION...
THEN ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED LATER TODAY.
HEAVY RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
WESTERN CUBA AND MUCH OF FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. 


A broad area of low pressure is coming together  around 275 miles South/southeast of
the mouth of the Mississippi River.   Here is the latest:
  • A near-by buoy detected tropical storm force winds
  • NHC could classify it as a depression or a storm soon.
  • They are giving this low a 90% chance of getting stronger over the next 2 days.
  • If it becomes a Tropical Storm, it will be called "Debby".


Keep in mind there is plenty of heat energy over the Gulf waters to provide this system
with plenty of fuel.  Everyone along the West Coast of Florida should monitor this
closely. Watches and Warnings may be issued at any time.



As the low continues to get better defined, it will start wrapping more and more moisture around it's center. All that rain has to go through Cuba and South Florida first.  This will make for a soggy weekend. We may see on and off flood watches through Sunday night, so please drive carefully. The ground is already saturated and any additional rain will quickly overwhelm drains and flood streets.

If it develops, where is it headed? 
The models have been all over the place. They continue to fan out, some pushing the system  east  and others west. When they do this, it means they do not have a good handle on what is happening in the atmosphere and thus, they are having a harder time determining what may happen next. We just need to watch and wait. 






What can we expect?
This is what the local NWS office is saying:

LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTH OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO THIS WEEKEND. THIS FEATURE WILL TRANSPORT DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES ALONG THE EAST COAST
AND FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES ALONG THE WEST COAST. AS TYPICALLY
OBSERVED DURING THESE EVENTS, LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
ARE POSSIBLE SINCE PERSISTENT BANDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL MAY
IMPACT A FEW AREAS.







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