Monday, June 18, 2012

Very long range models

If anything were to happen in the tropics this month, it would be either the Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico. Some very long range models hint at a few possibilities.

We are looking at the future tracks of a handful of systems developing in the region. On the following graph, the number on the left of the forward slash means what day the model is focusing on, while the number to the right is the time code.
  • NHC is already following one feature in the Western Atlantic, north of Bermuda. Even if this develops it will only be a worry for the shipping lanes.
  •  You can also appreciate how active the next few days may be if these models are right, with plenty of hot spots in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico.
  •  By the way, just because the models suggest something may brew, doesn't mean it will happen. This is just a heads up that the ingredients will be present in the atmosphere for a few systems to develop.
  •  NHC is not referencing any of these items yet but may start in the days ahead.

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