Next System?

Over the last 7 days, we have been monitoring a large batch of clouds and rain hovering through the Caribbean. At times, this brought us copious amounts of rain leading to localized street flooding.  This disturbance is apparently now taking shape close to the Yucatan Peninsula.

Pressures continue to fall in this area and at the same time, the low is keeping the moisture flow coming in from the South/Southwest. All the associated rain is expected to get dragged over us during the weekend making for a very soggy Saturday and Sunday.

Models show total rainfall for that period between 3-5 inches for Palm Beach, Broward, Miami-Dade and the Keys. As high as 7" by Collier and Mainland Monroe.

The National Hurricane Center is giving this feature an 80% chance it could become a depression or a tropical storm over the next 48 hours. If it becomes a tropical storm, it will be named "Debby".

The Hurricane Hunter mission for Friday was scrubbed. Another is on stand-by on Saturday if need be.


If it develops, where is it headed? 
The models have been all over the place. Early runs on Thursday showed this feature moving towards Mexico, then... late changes Thursday night pushed the low back to Florida.  On Friday, the models are fanning out. When they do this, it means they do not have a good handle on what is happening in the atmosphere and thus, they are having a harder time determining what may happen next. We just need to watch and wait. These runs provided by SFWMD.

If it heads to South Florida, what can we expect?
This is what the local NWS office is saying:

THE ONLY AFFECTS IT APPEARS FOR S FL WILL BE LONG SPELLS

OF AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUD COVER AND PERIODS OF RAIN AND A 

FEW THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE 

WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS, AND THESE COULD SET UP 

JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE.

It will take a day or so for this "Low" to develop. Keep in mind there is plenty of heat energy over the Gulf waters to provide it plenty of fuel. If upper level winds, keeping it in check right now relax, it will open the door for possible rapid growth. Everyone along the West Coast of Florida should monitor this closely.