Troublesome Debby

Tropical Storm Debby is proving to be a challenge for forecasters at the National Hurricane Center.The satellite picture shows a system sheared by upper winds with most of the rain and winds over Florida.

Experts are unsure of where Debby may end up and are telling us to be on the lookout as the cone may change at any time.

Heavy rain is moving across Western Cuba, the Straits, the Bahamas, and of course from the Keys through Tampa. Some of this activity could turn severe on Sunday.

Tornadoes can pop up anywhere across South Florida over the next 24 hours.


What is going on with Debby?

• Strong upper winds are keeping the rain on the eastern half of the storm
• These very same upper winds will keep Debby from getting stronger for another 24-48 hrs
• All the rain on the eastern side is impacting South Florida with Foul Weather.

The latest forecast cone has Debby moving very little in the days ahead and possibly becoming a Hurricane just Southeast of Louisiana by Wednesday.  But this remains uncertain. This is due in part to the models still not being in agreement as to where Debby may end up.

Watches and Warnings have been extended to include parts of Florida's West Coast.

Debby is presently moving northeast and impacting Florida more than Alabama, Mississippi, or Louisiana.

The latest model runs still show an uncertain future with many possible tracks and directions.

As of Sunday morning this is what NHC is saying:
"IT IS A VERY DIFFICULT AND HIGHLY UNCERTAIN FORECAST"

What is the forecast
Even NHC, is having a bit of a problem with this system.  "THE TRACK FORECAST IS EVEN MORE COMPLEX"


According to one model the GFS, the strong upper level winds blowing west to east over the Southeastern US, should absorb Debby and push it Northeast.

The GFS, ECMWF, and HWRF models, suggest a high pressure system developing around Georgia and pushing Debby to the West.

Because of all this insecurity, the cone may change at any time. NHC goes on to say:
'WE MUST BE READY TO MAKE A CHANGE OF THE FORECAST TRACK
AT ANY TIME"



Local Impacts:


Because of Debby, we will remain in a very unstable pattern. This is what the local NWS is saying:

DEBBY WILL BRING AT LEAST WEAKLY ORGANIZED FEEDER BANDS THROUGH
THE AREA. ISOLATED TORNADOES COULD EASILY FORM WITH THE MORE
CELLULAR STORMS WITHIN THESE BANDS. IN ADDITION, A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS
OF 50 TO 55 MPH. OVERALL, THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS ON TRACK,
WITH JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRENDS.