Sunday, June 24, 2012

Debby, Now Florida Worry

As we mentioned Sunday morning, NHC hinted at the possibility of a cone shift, and now with the latest advisory, it has happened.  Debby is less of a worry for Louisiana and more of a threat for Northern Florida.

NHC says the new cone is a compromise of all the different models and solutions over the last 24 hours. The GFS model has been consistent with moving the tropical storm East, while the ECMWF , and others, kept it heading West.  As of the latest run, more and more models are coming in line with the thinking that Debby will meander North over the next few days before moving Northeast.

NHC is not completely comfortable with the outcome of the new model runs, they say, "THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK REMAINS A LOW-CONFIDENCE FORECAST."

What is happening now with Debby?:

  • Latest recon suggests it is not getting any stronger due to strong upper winds keeping it in check.
  • Those winds are not expected to weaken over the next 3 days. However, it is sitting over very warm waters and that could lead to a chance for strengthening.
  • Most of the rain and wind remains to the east of the center impacting mostly Florida. 
  • Advisories are in effect from Englewood Florida on the West Coast, north through the Alabama/Mississippi border.

Locally our weather pattern will remain a mess
  • Plenty of rain to the Southwest continues to aim for us
  • Could still see pockets of heavy rain through the overnight
  • Plenty of moisture will hang around over the next few days with more heavy rain possible through Wednesday.

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