Saturday, June 2, 2012

Colorado State University changes forecast

Many commercial weather companies, universities, and of course the National Hurricane Center, issue a seasonal outlook.  At channel 7, we show Dr. William Gray's projections and NHC's.

The first because most people recognize him and his staff, at Colorado State University, as the best in the forecasting business. The latter because they are the ultimate authority when it comes to tropical systems.

But thats where similarities end.  While NHC stands firm with their outlook throughout the entire season, the CSU team updates their forecast frequently. They attribute this to long range changes in the sea/atmosphere environment and new "up to the minute" model runs.

Having said this, here is the JUNE 1st update. There will be a few more as the season progresses.

The average number of systems derived between the years 1981 through 2010 are as follows : 12 Named systems, out if which 6 hurricanes will develop, and out of these maybe 3-4 could reach category 3 or above.

Here is the update:
                              June 1st       April 4
                              Update        Previous        Average
Named systems        13*              10                   12
Hurricanes                5                 4                    6
Major Storms             2                 2                    3

*This number includes the 2 previous systems that popped up before the start of hurricane season. (Alberto & Beryl)

For the time being, everything is quiet in the tropics. Please prepare accordingly, it only takes one to make landfall.

Here is a link to a great article by NOAA showing their outlook and an explanation of how they reached their projections.

National Hurricane Center's 2012 Forecast

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