T.S. Fernand

Heavy rain and gusty winds will impact Central Mexico on Monday from a storm that brewed up over the weekend. Despite traversing over land and meeting some unfavorable conditions early in its development, this weak wave managed to grow into a named system.

Even though this is a weak system with top winds of around 45 mph, it will be the rain that will cause much of the trouble.

NHC says:

RAINFALL...FERNAND IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 4 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN OVER
VERACRUZ...HIDALGO...NORTHERN PUEBLA...SOUTHERN TAMAULIPAS...AND
EASTERN SAN LUIS POTOSI MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS NEAR
12 INCHES POSSIBLE.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.



We expect Fernand to weaken further as it makes its way inland across Mexico.

A Tropical System Aiming for Mexico

So I've been working in the yard all day and just sat down for a quick peek at the weather, and lo and behold we've got an area of disturbed weather with a decent chance for development.

Where is it?
Its basically over land over the Yucatan.

 It is a tropical wave that has spun an area of low pressure and is accompanied by plenty of cloud cover and rain.

What next?
NHC is giving it a 50% chance for development over the next five days as it moves west.

A recon plane is on stand-by for Sunday to check it out if need be.

Where is it headed?
The models are pretty much in agreement this feature will continue to move west throughout the next 120 hours.

Only one moves it into Texas, and that is a statistical model that takes into account all the storms that have formed over the years in this area and averages out their tracks.


Even if it doesn't grow it will dump plenty of rain over Central Mexico. This will lead to flooding, land and mudslides over the region.

Erin & Yucatan Low

Over the past few days we have been following two areas, Tropical Storm Erin in the Far Eastern Atlantic and an area of low pressure over the Yucatan Peninsula. Both are very weak as of Friday morning.

Lets begin with the activity close to home.

The low has now moved west into the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Satellite imagery shows a highly disorganized system with most of the rain to the East of the center.

Models show the system moving NW and running into the jet stream in about 2 days. What happens next will dictate its future.

• If it moves west like most of the models suggest, then there is a chance that this feature could grow and develop.
• If it tracks due North, then the strong winds from the jet will shred whatever is left. The remnants could still produce heavy rain.

What does this mean for us?

The Water Vapor imagery gives us an idea of how much moisture is available with the low. The darker colors represent potentially heavy rain areas.

There is a clear spin in the middle of the Gulf caused by an upper low. This is helping to draw showers and storms away from the surface low and push it our way.

There is also a front stalled across the Southeast visible by the line of clouds moving west to east, this should trap the moisture here.

We will be watching for this set up over the weekend. If that moisture moving our way holds, it could bring spotty storms, however up to now, the rainfall has been minimal.

Tropical Storm in the Far Eastern Atlantic:
Then there is Tropical Storm Erin. looking very weak and highly disorganized.  Its present environment will keep it on life support for another 48 hours but after that it will run into drier air. NHC keeps it around until Wednesday night making a turn towards the open waters of the Atlantic. This system continues to be a nuisance for the shipping lanes.

Tropical Storm Erin

Tropical Storm Erin was born early Thursday morning from a depression off the West Coast of Africa.
Satellite imagery suggests a good looking storm. There is plenty of banding at the surface giving it a more classical hurricane look, while outflow is well established in the upper levels.


The system is over 4000 miles away from South Florida so no need to worry about this one, it will only be a concern for the shipping lanes.


For the moment "Erin" is enjoying a favorable environment for growth with little shear and warm sea surface temperatures, but in 48 hours the party should come to an end as cooler waters lay in its path.

Over the next 5 days it will travel almost due West as high pressure pushes it in that direction.

Even though NHC does not expect "Erin" to grow much stronger than a storm, interests in the Lesser Antilles should watch it closely.

Areas such as Puerto Rico have been hit very hard with record setting rains, any additional activity and flooding could be an issue.

Meanwhile we are still eyeing an area of low pressure Southwest of Cuba. It has lost some of its punch overnight as it moves West over Belize.

Plenty of rain there could cause isolated flooding.  Heavy rain is also impacting Coastal Yucatan with torrential downpours.  NHC is now giving this Low, a 50% chance it could grow into a depression/storm over the next 2 days. That chance grows to 60% once it moves into the warmer waters of the Gulf of Mexico.

Most models are in agreement that if anything were to develop here, it will move over the Yucatan and into the Gulf.

After that, models fan out with some moving the system into Mainland Mexico, others Texas, and even a few take it to Louisiana.

The moisture associated with this feature should keep us soggy this Thursday with mostly cloudy skies.

The rest of the forecast depends on the Low, if it moves away fast enough we could see a nice weekend but if it meanders then more rain can be expected.

Watching Two

August is starting to give us some activity in the tropics. We begin with two waves that a mere 24-48 hours ago were highly disorganized and now both are showing signs of development.

The first is in the Caribbean Sea:
This feature has dumped plenty of rain across Jamaica and Eastern Cuba.  It continues to travel west northwest with nearby observations indicating that a low pressure system may be forming.  Most of the heavy rainfall now sits between the Cayman Islands and Coastal Honduras.

NHC says this possible low has a 60-70% chance of turning into a depression or a tropical storm before it reaches land.

In the short term it is aiming for the Yucatan Peninsula. After that models fan out, some tracking the system towards the Gulf States and others pushing it into Mexico.

Local Impacts:
Now that the wave appears to be getting organized, it will wrap all the moisture around its center of circulation but some of it will escape and make its way into South Florida. How much will depend on how fast it gets its act together, regardless plan on some showers late tonight and a better chance for some tropical downpours on Thursday.

High pressure will dispense this system to the northwest where it will run into the jet stream over the Gulf.  What happens next is really up in the air.

It could:

• Fall apart
• Get bounced towards Texas, Louisiana, or even Florida's Panhandle
• Get shoved back towards Mexico.

The second feature is almost 4 thousand miles away from Florida. 

This is already an area of low pressure just to the Southeast of the Cape Verde Islands.

It appears to be poised for additional growth. NHC gives it a 70-80% chance it could grow into a depression or storm anytime over the next 5 days.

It does have one huge obstacle ahead of it, some dry air and strong shear. It should run into that unfavorable wall in about 48 hours. It may spell the end of it. All we can do is watch and wait.

If it survives, most models place the system somewhere in the middle of the Atlantic in 120 hours.

Old Dorian, Recon Mission Set for Sunday

A hurricane hunter plane is scheduled to investigate the remnants of Dorian today. NHC believes there is a small chance for regeneration.

The following is their message:

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF DORIAN...IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT EXTENDS A
FEW HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

THIS ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...PASSING NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO TODAY AND MONDAY...AND MOVING OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND SOUTHERN BAHAMAS BY EARLY TUESDAY.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR REGENERATION...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

AN AIR FORCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED  TO INVESTIGATE THIS DISTURBANCE LATER TODAY.

Huge roadblocks: 
First, their is another spin just to the Northwest of old Dorian.

This is an upper low and should help to keep the remnants at bay.

The upper low will remain in place for at least another 24-48 hours.




Second obstacle:
While the remnants of Dorian are producing more thunderstorms today than over the last 24 - 48 hours, it must still contend with a huge foe...strong upper level winds (shear) coming from the opposite direction.

The map to the right shows us where the shear can be found.

Right around the middle of the screen you'll find the small cloud area that is the remnant of Dorian.

Now focus on the orange lines starting over Florida, swooping down through Cuba into the Caribbean and then moving up just ahead of old Dorian. That is strong wind shear that should prevent it from growing again.

What to expect:

Puerto Rico: Will see on and off showers from the remnants of Dorian as the bulk of the moisture passes to the North.

Dominican Republic: Their weather office says the remnants will pass around 700 miles to the north, yet scattered storms may impact them tonight and tomorrow.

Haiti: As of this writing, their meteorological office is calling for a quiet weather pattern over the next 48 hours.

South Florida: This message comes from our local weather office.
AS FOR THE REMNANTS OF DORIAN...THE CONSENSUS AT THIS TIME CONTINUES

TO BE THAT THEY ARE LIKELY TO PASS TO OUR SOUTH AS A WAVE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH NO SIGNIFICANT LOCAL IMPACTS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IN CASE THIS OUTLOOK CHANGES GOING
FORWARD.

T.S. Dorian, good news-bad news

The Good News:

Over the last 24 hours, dry air has played a key role in weakening the tropical storm.

It looks very disorganized, and it most definitively lacks that standard cyclone look.

The dry air slot in the atmosphere should remain in place another 24 hours or so further depriving Dorian of the moist environment it needs to survive and grow.

It is still moving west/northwest at a steady clip not giving it a chance to soak up any heat energy from the ocean.


The Bad News:

Dorian may fall apart altogether over the next 48 hours bringing to an end this chapter, but if it survives, it still has the islands in its path.

NHC still places Dorian near the Leewards by Mon-Tue, being pushed there by the Bermuda high.
All we can do is watch.

T.S. Dorian

Tropical Storm Dorian formed from a Low in the Far Eastern Atlantic. It struggled a bit late Wednesday night, but it appears to have overcome that hiccup early Thursday morning.

It is still very far away from any land.
It is around 3000 miles away from Florida. At the moment it is spinning towards the Middle of the Atlantic Ocean, heading due west, being pushed along by the Bermuda High. It should stay like this until Sunday sometime when it takes more of a Northwest turn as the high retreats just a tad.

How strong will Dorian get?
This is still uncertain. It is scheduled to move over warmer waters that could fuel its growth, but its also going to run into some stronger wind shear. All we can do is watch and wait.

Tropical Depression Four

Very early on Wednesday morning, NHC started issuing advisories on an area of Low Pressure very far away from home, Its in the Eastern Atlantic, roughly 3500 miles away from South Florida.

Top winds are around 35 mph and it is moving West at 20 mph.

As of 5am, it has a well defined center with nominal thunderstorm activity.

It is being pushed west by a huge dome of high pressure.

So what lays ahead?

• For the time being TD4 is moving over warm waters with very little shear and should have a chance to become Tropical Storm Dorian.
• But in a couple of days, it will run into drier air and some shear that should keep the system in check,  
• Intensity forecasting is not an exact science, but NHC keeps the system with 45 mph winds over the next 5 days. In a week or so it may be close to the Lesser Antilles.

Plenty of time to watch it.

Chantal, what's next?

As of early Wednesday morning, Chantal is poorly organized with minimal tropical storm force winds. Some shear has taken its toll and its fast forward speed has not given it the chance to intensify, even traveling over the warm waters of the Caribbean.

Still, there are some t-storms trying to develop along the poorly defined center of circulation. This may be a last gasp measure to survive.

A recon mission will determine later today whether "Chantal" is still a tropical entity, it could very well have degenerated into nothing more than a wave.

If that's the case, stop here, and the blog is done.

But if it's still hanging around by Wednesday night, then we could see something of "Chantal" here by the weekend.

THE FOLLOWING IS ONLY IF CHANTAL HAS SURVIVED

• It should make landfall near the Western tip of Haiti with some pockets of heavy rain that could result in flooding, land and mudslides.
• It's next stop would be along Central Cuba, where it would dump more rain over the area. Here too there is another large mountain chain that could further weaken whatever is left of Chantal.
• If its still with us by Friday morning, it could bring us rain over South Florida with breezy conditions for Saturday and Sunday.

The only fly in the ointment, would be that it must cross over the very warm waters of the Gulf Stream Current to get here, and that could provide some fuel for growth.

As with any tropical system, just keep monitoring it and stay informed.

IF IT REMAINS AS A TROPICAL SYSTEM: This is the forecast cone.

T.S. Chantal over the Lesser Antilles

Over the next 24 hours, "Chantal" will make a transition from an Atlantic storm to a Caribbean one. During this process it will impact the islands of the Lesser Antilles, with some wind and rain while possibly getting a little stronger as it moves over warmer waters.

:

Chantal is having a little trouble maintaining its shape due to how fast its traveling.  Still clipping along around 26 mph.

It lacks your typical "feeder bands" type of structure.

Most of the t-storm activity is along the burst of clouds seen in the Satellite loop.


Short term:

• Chantal will impact the islands with winds of 50-60 mph, some rain, and heavy surf.
• It will have a chance to grow when it moves into the warmer waters of the Caribbean Sea. Here it will start to slow down allowing it to absorb more heat energy from the water.  
• This will be a danger as it could near hurricane strength as it approaches Hispaniola on Wednesday.

Long Run:

• When it hits Hispaniola, it will dump plenty of rain leading to the threat of flooding, land and mudslides from Dominican Republic to Haiti.
• It should also run into the highest terrain in the Caribbean, that being the 10 thousand feet tall mountains of "El Pico Duarte".
• This peak will act as a huge wall disrupting its shape and weakening it considerably.
• If it can survive this landfall, it may continue as a weaker system towards the Bahamas.

NHC has offered different forecasts after the clash with Hispaniola , due to the uncertainty of the outcome when it crosses over Dominican Republic and Haiti.

• On Monday it suggested a weaker depression aiming for the Bahamas and South Florida.
• Monday night it kept Chantal, as a Tropical Storm very close to South Florida over the weekend. 
• Tuesday morning, they keep the possibility of Chantal remaining as a Tropical Storm over the Bahamas and parts of Coastal South Florida.  

Most models keep something near us by the Bahamas through the weekend.  If Chantal survives until then, the jet stream coming out of the Nation's midsection should help block whatever is here, away from most of Florida. All we can do is watch and hope for the best for our neighbors to the South.

These are the advisories in effect this Tuesday morning:


A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS
* DOMINICA
* ST. LUCIA
* MARTINIQUE
* GUADELOUPE
* PUERTO RICO
* SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE
BORDER WITH HAITI

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. VINCENT
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
* HAITI
* TURKS AND CAICOS
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS

T.S Chantal hanging on

T.S. Chantal starts out this Monday not looking too healthy on satellite imagery, yet you can almost start to see the classic hurricane shape developing. It formed from a wave/low in the Eastern Atlantic on Sunday night and since then, it has not strengthened.

The very latest:
Its aiming for the Lesser Antilles, roughly 650 miles East of Barbados.

Tropical storm warnings and watches are in place for Barbados, Dominica, St. Lucia, Martinique,  Guadalupe, and St. Vincent.

As of Monday morning, Martinique radar is only picking up a few sea breeze driven showers.

As it has since it developed, "Chantal" is moving extremely fast, at around 26 mph.

What to Expect:
By Tuesday, all the islands mentioned above should begin to see the winds pick up to around 45 mph. Rain totals are expected between 2-4 to possibly 6 inches. This could cause land and mudslides in some areas.

As I noted in my last blog entry, "Chantal" will have trouble getting stronger due to its fast forward speed. Tropical systems need to travel a little slower (around 10-15 mph), in order for them to absorb all the heat from the ocean. This heat is like gasoline, letting their engines grow stronger. But at its present rate, its bypassing all the pit stops.

IF, it can manage to slow down, there is a chance it could grow to hurricane strength in 48 hours.

FORECAST TRACK:
If the system travels over Hispaniola, this could be bad news for our neighbors in Dominican Republic and Haiti. They could get hit with strong winds and torrential downpours, but the Dominican has the highest terrain in all of the Caribbean and this could weaken the system significantly.

"Chantal" could face el Pico Duarte, which stands around 10,000 feet tall.  This would act as a huge wall disrupting its circulation and tearing its structure apart. This could deliver a much weaker system as it leaves Haiti and heads for Cuba. We will have to wait and see.

Most of the heavy rain and gusty winds remain on the Northern side of "Chantal".  

It is currently a nuisance for the shipping industry with 8 to 10 foot swells and winds already in the 20 to 30 knot range.

All the models aim the system towards Eastern Cuba by Mid week. After that.... it appears that the jet stream is scheduled to move out of the Nation's midsection and move to the East Coast. If this happens it will act as a shield keeping "Chantal" offshore.  This means a Bahamas impact.  If the jet is late, then we could still see "Chantal" visit us here in South Florida. How strong it will be remains to be determined by its interaction with Hispaniola.

T.S. Chantal

Tropical Storm "Chantal" formed Sunday night, out of a vigorous wave/low in the Eastern Atlantic. Its roughly 1300 miles East / Southeast of Barbados in the Windward Islands.

 It will continue to move due West for the next few days pushed along by the Bermuda High.

It is a very small and compact storm with much of the Tropical Storm force winds located in the NE quadrant.

It has plenty of thunderstorm activity around the surface low and should remain on a steady pace towards the Lesser Antilles.

Marine conditions are deteriorating within 100 miles of the storm.



The following Islands are under a Tropical Storm Warning:
Barbados, Dominica, and St. Lucia. While St. Vincent is under a Tropical Storm Watch.

For the time being, these islands can expect winds of 40-50 mph hour with rainfall totals of about 2-4 inches with some areas maybe receiving half a foot.

What NHC is forecasting:

• At its present, very fast, forward speed of almost 26 mph... it should cross over the Lesser Antilles Monday night or early Tuesday morning, 
• This fast forward speed is key because it does not give it enough time to soak up heat energy from the ocean. Hot water is like jet fuel for storms, allowing them to grow faster.

What's working for it:

• Warmer Sea Surface temps in its path
• "Chantal" should slow down some, allowing it a chance to maybe reach Category 1 status sometime Tuesday.
• Nothing in the atmosphere to stop it or weaken it. (No shearing winds)

Whats working against it:

• If the system travels over Hispaniola, this could be bad news for our neighbors in Dominican Republic and Haiti. They could get hit with strong winds and torrential downpours, but the Dominican has the highest terrain in all of the Caribbean and this could weaken the system significantly.  
• "Chantal" could face el Pico Duarte, which stands around 10,000 feet tall.  This would act as a huge wall disrupting its circulation and tearing its structure apart. This could deliver a much weaker system as it leaves Haiti and heads for Cuba. We will have to wait and see.

In the long run:

• All the models aim the system towards Eastern Cuba by Mid week. After that.... it appears that the jet stream is scheduled to move out of the Nation's midsection and move to the East Coast. If this happens it will act as a shield keeping "Chantal" offshore.  If its late, then we may still get a visit from this unwanted Atlantic Lady.