Wednesday, August 14, 2013

Watching Two

August is starting to give us some activity in the tropics. We begin with two waves that a mere 24-48 hours ago were highly disorganized and now both are showing signs of development.

The first is in the Caribbean Sea:
This feature has dumped plenty of rain across Jamaica and Eastern Cuba.  It continues to travel west northwest with nearby observations indicating that a low pressure system may be forming.  Most of the heavy rainfall now sits between the Cayman Islands and Coastal Honduras.

NHC says this possible low has a 60-70% chance of turning into a depression or a tropical storm before it reaches land.

In the short term it is aiming for the Yucatan Peninsula. After that models fan out, some tracking the system towards the Gulf States and others pushing it into Mexico.

Local Impacts:
Now that the wave appears to be getting organized, it will wrap all the moisture around its center of circulation but some of it will escape and make its way into South Florida. How much will depend on how fast it gets its act together, regardless plan on some showers late tonight and a better chance for some tropical downpours on Thursday.

High pressure will dispense this system to the northwest where it will run into the jet stream over the Gulf.  What happens next is really up in the air.

It could:

  • Fall apart
  • Get bounced towards Texas, Louisiana, or even Florida's Panhandle
  • Get shoved back towards Mexico.

The second feature is almost 4 thousand miles away from Florida. 

This is already an area of low pressure just to the Southeast of the Cape Verde Islands.

It appears to be poised for additional growth. NHC gives it a 70-80% chance it could grow into a depression or storm anytime over the next 5 days.

It does have one huge obstacle ahead of it, some dry air and strong shear. It should run into that unfavorable wall in about 48 hours. It may spell the end of it. All we can do is watch and wait.

If it survives, most models place the system somewhere in the middle of the Atlantic in 120 hours.

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