T.S. Chantal over the Lesser Antilles

Over the next 24 hours, "Chantal" will make a transition from an Atlantic storm to a Caribbean one. During this process it will impact the islands of the Lesser Antilles, with some wind and rain while possibly getting a little stronger as it moves over warmer waters.

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Chantal is having a little trouble maintaining its shape due to how fast its traveling.  Still clipping along around 26 mph.

It lacks your typical "feeder bands" type of structure.

Most of the t-storm activity is along the burst of clouds seen in the Satellite loop.


Short term:

• Chantal will impact the islands with winds of 50-60 mph, some rain, and heavy surf.
• It will have a chance to grow when it moves into the warmer waters of the Caribbean Sea. Here it will start to slow down allowing it to absorb more heat energy from the water.  
• This will be a danger as it could near hurricane strength as it approaches Hispaniola on Wednesday.

Long Run:

• When it hits Hispaniola, it will dump plenty of rain leading to the threat of flooding, land and mudslides from Dominican Republic to Haiti.
• It should also run into the highest terrain in the Caribbean, that being the 10 thousand feet tall mountains of "El Pico Duarte".
• This peak will act as a huge wall disrupting its shape and weakening it considerably.
• If it can survive this landfall, it may continue as a weaker system towards the Bahamas.

NHC has offered different forecasts after the clash with Hispaniola , due to the uncertainty of the outcome when it crosses over Dominican Republic and Haiti.

• On Monday it suggested a weaker depression aiming for the Bahamas and South Florida.
• Monday night it kept Chantal, as a Tropical Storm very close to South Florida over the weekend. 
• Tuesday morning, they keep the possibility of Chantal remaining as a Tropical Storm over the Bahamas and parts of Coastal South Florida.  

Most models keep something near us by the Bahamas through the weekend.  If Chantal survives until then, the jet stream coming out of the Nation's midsection should help block whatever is here, away from most of Florida. All we can do is watch and hope for the best for our neighbors to the South.

These are the advisories in effect this Tuesday morning:


A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS
* DOMINICA
* ST. LUCIA
* MARTINIQUE
* GUADELOUPE
* PUERTO RICO
* SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE
BORDER WITH HAITI

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. VINCENT
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
* HAITI
* TURKS AND CAICOS
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS