Friday, August 16, 2013

Erin & Yucatan Low

Over the past few days we have been following two areas, Tropical Storm Erin in the Far Eastern Atlantic and an area of low pressure over the Yucatan Peninsula. Both are very weak as of Friday morning.

Lets begin with the activity close to home.

The low has now moved west into the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Satellite imagery shows a highly disorganized system with most of the rain to the East of the center.

Models show the system moving NW and running into the jet stream in about 2 days. What happens next will dictate its future.

  • If it moves west like most of the models suggest, then there is a chance that this feature could grow and develop.
  • If it tracks due North, then the strong winds from the jet will shred whatever is left. The remnants could still produce heavy rain.

What does this mean for us?

The Water Vapor imagery gives us an idea of how much moisture is available with the low. The darker colors represent potentially heavy rain areas.

There is a clear spin in the middle of the Gulf caused by an upper low. This is helping to draw showers and storms away from the surface low and push it our way.

There is also a front stalled across the Southeast visible by the line of clouds moving west to east, this should trap the moisture here.

We will be watching for this set up over the weekend. If that moisture moving our way holds, it could bring spotty storms, however up to now, the rainfall has been minimal.

Tropical Storm in the Far Eastern Atlantic:
Then there is Tropical Storm Erin. looking very weak and highly disorganized.  Its present environment will keep it on life support for another 48 hours but after that it will run into drier air. NHC keeps it around until Wednesday night making a turn towards the open waters of the Atlantic. This system continues to be a nuisance for the shipping lanes.

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