Thursday, August 15, 2013

Tropical Storm Erin

Tropical Storm Erin was born early Thursday morning from a depression off the West Coast of Africa.
Satellite imagery suggests a good looking storm. There is plenty of banding at the surface giving it a more classical hurricane look, while outflow is well established in the upper levels.

The system is over 4000 miles away from South Florida so no need to worry about this one, it will only be a concern for the shipping lanes.

For the moment "Erin" is enjoying a favorable environment for growth with little shear and warm sea surface temperatures, but in 48 hours the party should come to an end as cooler waters lay in its path.

Over the next 5 days it will travel almost due West as high pressure pushes it in that direction.

Even though NHC does not expect "Erin" to grow much stronger than a storm, interests in the Lesser Antilles should watch it closely.

Areas such as Puerto Rico have been hit very hard with record setting rains, any additional activity and flooding could be an issue.

Meanwhile we are still eyeing an area of low pressure Southwest of Cuba. It has lost some of its punch overnight as it moves West over Belize.

Plenty of rain there could cause isolated flooding.  Heavy rain is also impacting Coastal Yucatan with torrential downpours.  NHC is now giving this Low, a 50% chance it could grow into a depression/storm over the next 2 days. That chance grows to 60% once it moves into the warmer waters of the Gulf of Mexico.

Most models are in agreement that if anything were to develop here, it will move over the Yucatan and into the Gulf.

After that, models fan out with some moving the system into Mainland Mexico, others Texas, and even a few take it to Louisiana.

The moisture associated with this feature should keep us soggy this Thursday with mostly cloudy skies.

The rest of the forecast depends on the Low, if it moves away fast enough we could see a nice weekend but if it meanders then more rain can be expected.

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