Troubling "Irma"

The National Hurricane Center is following closely the latest developments from Tropical Storm "Irma". This system should become a hurricane today in the Far Eastern Atlantic. Its situated roughly 600 - 700 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands. Movement shall remain almost due west for the next few days.

The satellite imagery shows a good looking healthy system with developing feeder bands.

The environment surrounding "Irma" will allow it to intensify over the next few days.

It may reach major status with winds over 111 mph as it nears the Lesser Antilles.

There is little shear in its path and water temps are warm so it has the fuel it needs to grow, free of obstacles.

In the long term, it may encounter some dry air that has a small chance at debilitating "Irma".

Where is it headed?
This is a system that needs watching by everyone down the road. It will get pushed West by High Pressure to the north.  This will keep Irma traveling more or less in a west-northwest trajectory. In about 2 - 3 days however, the high dips south aiming "Irma"towards the Islands. After that, models are not in agreement.

Lets review a few of the more detailed model outlooks:
The CMC, shows a small green dot just north of the Leeward Islands in about 5 - 7 days. The darker the color and tighter the lines, the stronger the  system. This model places an intense storm northeast of Puerto Rico. It also keeps high pressure, shown in the red blobs, split open over the East Coast of USA. This may be a path to take but it may include the Bahamas and South Florida in its route.

The European Operational Model maintains the high pressure dome closer to the East Coast keeping "Irma" on a collision course with Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Bahamas, Cuba, So Florida and maybe the Gulf States.

The GFS Model is also buying into High Pressure holding firm and pushing "Irma" towards the Bahamas and possibly South Florida. Notice in this run there's a second little dot by Texas. This model is forecasting another system to possibly hit the Texas/Louisiana coast in the days ahead. Keeping my fingers crossed that does not happen.

The NHC official forecast cone for "Irma" is a mix between the Global and GFS models.

Everyone across the Islands to South Florida should keep monitoring this as it could turn out to be a strong system.