Atlantic Sat Image

Atlantic Sat Image
Clouds over Atlantic

Saturday, August 12, 2017

Chances Growing for Atlantic Low

As of Saturday morning an area of low pressure in the Western Atlantic has a high chance of becoming our next depression or tropical storm.  The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is giving it a 60% chance for growth in 48 hours, higher chances over five days.  If it were to develop it would do so in the area highlighted in red.

The reason for the higher chances, is that the strong upper level winds (Shear) that was keeping it disorganized have weakened. The low now has breathing room to grow.

As of this update it appears the system , if it develops, should stay away from land and over the open waters of the Atlantic.

The low is just over 100 miles northeast of the Turks & Caicos (SE Bahamas) and looking a little better organized. It will continue to move northwest at around 15 - 20 mph.

The satellite loops shows areas of oranges and reds trying to spin around a fixed center. These are globs of thunderstorms coming together.

If those areas completely close off, looking like a ring, that's an indicator a system has formed.

As of this update, Hurricane Hunters are not scheduled to investigate.

The Turks and Caicos, as well as the Southeastern Bahamas, may get some rain from this Low as it travels nearby.

Where is it Going?
The models are pretty much in unanimous agreement that this low will stay away from any land areas. They suggest the Bermuda high will move East, then a front will move from Central USA to the Coast acting as a roadblock. This will leave only one path for the low to take and thats between Bermuda and the East Coast.  Even Bermuda appears to be outside the projected path. (The black line is base line, not a track or an outlier model)

Even though there may be a track consensus among models, they are not all humming the same tune when it comes to something actually forming.

This is the Canadian Model showing a tight title circle East of Jacksonville indicating good formation by August 14th.

The European Model however, shows a small ring around the same time, suggesting a much weaker or non existent depression or storm.

How strong could it be?
The intensity of a system is one of the most difficult criteria to forecast. The graph has the wind speed on the left and the hours on the bottom.  Notice between 72 and 96 hours, the models show the system near hurricane strength, then quickly loosing steam. ((CLICK ON IMAGE FOR LATEST RUN))

Remember these forecast track projections are not set in stone. Areas even far away from the center can still get impacted by the system. Remember Tropical Storm "Emily" just last month? Even though it moved over Central Florida, our area got hit hard with heavy rain leading to street flooding.

As always this is a good opportunity to review your hurricane plans and supplies just in case Mother Nature throws us a curve ball.

We will keep monitoring and informing you if there are any changes.

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