Latest Assessment on "Irma"

Hurricane "Irma" remains a strong storm in the Eastern Atlantic over 1000 miles east of the Leeward Islands.

Hurricane Headlines

• The Leeward Islands should watch it closely.  Models suggest "Irma" may grow in size during the next 3 days, this may determine when advisories will be issued for you. It could also arrive as a major system,  111 mph winds - Cat 3 or above.
• Recon flights begin on Sunday with NOAA planes, followed by Air Force's Hurricane Hunters on Monday.
• It is way too early to say whether "Irma" will have any impact on Bahamas, FL, or any other part of the U.S.

"Irma's" Health

The system has changed very little over the last 24 hours and remains an intense but compact hurricane. The strongest winds extend out from the center 25 miles, while tropical storm force reach out to 70 miles.

Its eye is visible .

While "Irma" may be a small system (size-wise), it promises to grow larger over the next 3 days. This will determine when watches and warnings are issued for the Leeward & Virgin Islands.

Even though "Irma" is being impacted by some dry air, it really hasn't taken a huge toll on it.

In the next few days, it should reach warmer waters and additional moisture which could aid in intensification.

At the same time, it will run into some strong upper level winds which may help to weaken it. In this case, the models keep it more or less near Cat 3 strength.

Unfortunately, there is also the possibility "Irma" could get stronger sooner before reaching the shear.

Where is it going?

The official cone from NHC shows the system near the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, & even Eastern Dominican Republic by Thursday. It can be anywhere in the shaded area. After that, models are shifting back and forth and real determination of its final destination is still highly questionable.

High pressure to the North (Bermuda High) will continue to push "Irma"west-southwest. By the end of next week, it will be close to the Western Edge of the Bermuda high. The question will be what "Irma" does next. Depending on how soon it can make the turn north, it may come dangerously close to the Leeward Islands.

They should be ready for dangerous winds, heavy rainfall that could lead to flooding, land and mudslides, and storm surge.

The Worry Meter

For the Leeward Islands & Puerto Rico: Elevated. I would be making sure I had the supplies I need along with food and water. This is a powerful system that promises to be near you in the days ahead.

The Bahamas, Dominican Republic, Florida & beyond: Low.
There are too many variables. Review your storm plans and make sure you have what you need. Hopefully this will just be an exercise in preparedness.