Irma's Health Check

"Irma" Remains a strong hurricane in the Atlantic

Headlines

• Expected to remain a major system as it nears the Leeward Islands. Watches & Warnings may be issued later today.
• The Virgin Islands & Puerto Rico may also be impacted later in the week. Watches and warnings may be issued there sometime Monday.
• Dominican Republic, Haiti, Turks & Caicos & the Bahamas should monitor the path carefully. If nothing changes with the trajectory of the cone, you too may see advisories issued.
• Florida and the rest of U.S. East Coast, NHC says its too early to determine where "Irma" may finally end up.

Where is it going?

Short term: Most models agree the eye may pass very close to the Leeward Islands by the middle of the week.  Cannot rule out a direct impact.

Long term: By the end of the week it may be anywhere in shaded area which includes, Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic, parts of Haiti, Turks & Caicos and even the Central Bahamas.

Latest Models

Keep in mind the atmosphere is fluid and ever changing. Forecasts are not set in stone and that is why they are updated every few hours.  Also, the farther out in time you go, the greater the forecast error. By day 5, each one of these little lines has an error of over 240 miles in either direction. These models go out 7 days so the spread is even larger. That is the problem with focusing too much on long range outlooks.

Worry Meter

Leeward Islands: HIGH. I would try and complete all your preparations.  Watches may be issued for you at any time. Do it now and be ready just in case.

Virgin Islands & Puerto Rico: Elevated. Review what you need and be ready for advisories to be issued for you early this week. Keep a close eye on the storm.

Dominican Republic, Haiti, Turks & Caicos & the Central Bahamas:  Medium.  Even though this system is far away, and many things can happen, it is forecast to be a strong hurricane by the time it nears the area. Review your hurricane plans and be ready when and if local authorities implement watches and warnings.

Florida & U.S. East Coast: Low. NHC and the models say its too early to tell where "Irma" may end up. I always err on the side of caution and urge you to review your plans & supplies now. At worst we may have a strong hurricane in our hands by next weekend, at best- this may just be an exercise in preparation and readiness.

I'll keep you posted