Tropics are Heating Up

Five areas to watch over the next few days, 

two of which may be headaches down the road.

As of Wednesday morning, we are looking at 5 areas in the Atlantic Basin.
The tropical activity stretches from Hurricane "Gert" in the Western Atlantic to a wave in the Caribbean, two lows in the Mid Atlantic, and another wave off the West Coast of Africa.

Lets review each:

1. Hurricane Gert: Tied Former Hurricane "Franklin" Tuesday night, for strongest system in 2017 with top winds of 85 mph. A front will move off the East Coast of USA on Wednesday keeping "Gert" away from any land areas. This will be a "Marine Hurricane" or an open water storm.  It should die out sometime over the weekend as it moves over the "Hurricane Graveyard" or the cold waters of the Northern Atlantic.
2. Tropical Wave in Caribbean: This is a very weak wave with little moisture. Its moving Northwest and if it can survive, the northern edge of the wave may push some added downpours to South Florida, by the end of the week. Waves are very fickle, they can grow quickly or fall apart just as fast. We'll be watching it.
3. Broad Area of Low Pressure: This feature has a medium chance for development as it moves west. It may be a worry for the islands next week.
4. Broad Area of Low Pressure: This is traveling North/Northwest. This too has a medium chance of becoming a depression of a tropical storm over the next 5 days.
5. Tropical Wave: This is just coming off the West Coast of Africa today. NHC is giving it a medium chance for development through next Monday.

Lets focus on Features Three and Four

This is what the National Hurricane Center is saying about the chances each of them have to develop over the next 5 days. If they do form, it should happen somewhere over the areas highlighted. This is NOT a forecast path, but the area models think something may form.

The two Lows are the ones I am watching closely.

The nearest one to the Lesser Antilles is roughly 1000 miles to the East, traveling towards the islands at around 15 - 20 mph.

It has been deemed "Invest91L" as it is an area NHC would like to INVESTigate further.

This area of clouds and rain should navigate into the Caribbean Sea sometime on Friday,

There is a chance it could develop just before crossing over from the Atlantic.

Conditions become less favorable for organization once it enters the Eastern Caribbean Sea.

Early Model Runs on Invest91L:
Models need a good staring point in order to provide an accurate forecast track. Since nothing has organized yet, there is no center fix, therefore they are just offering an educated guess.

If something were to happen with Invest91L, it appears the most likely course will be west over the Lesser Antilles and then the Caribbean.

For you across the Islands, this is a good opportunity to review your supplies just in case Mother Nature whips up a storm.

We are hoping nothing develops, but preparation is always best.

Early Model Runs on Invest92L:
This broad low is situated a few hundred miles west/southwest of Cape Verde. Its moving west/northwest at around 15 - 20 mph. It has a short window of opportunity for development.

First, it has to battle Saharan Dust (shown in the orange shades) which is depriving it of much needed moisture to grow. The dust is encroaching the northern sector of the Low. Second, upper air conditions turn hostile by the weekend.

The models show if anything develops, it will border the Bermuda high sitting to its north and possibly aim for the Bahamas.

Why so much activity?
We are diving head first into a mini season within the hurricane season, known as "Cape Verde Season".

This time of year, disturbances come off the West Coast of Africa and either go over or near the Cape Verde Islands, with some developing down the road. This is why the season is named after the islands.

"Cape Verde Season" runs from Mid August thru October.

These systems tend to be stronger and last longer than most.

The good take away from all this, is that dozens and dozens of these disturbances emerge into the Atlantic, but only one or two organize and go on to become hurricanes.

By the way the peak of hurricane season is right around the corner, that being September 10th.