Harvey, a Low, and a Wave.

As we move into the weekend, there is plenty to watch. We start with an area of clouds and rain east of the Lesser Antilles. It is an area of Low pressure with a high chance at becoming a depression or a Tropical Storm over the next few days.

The area has been deemed Invest92L, as a feature NHC would like to INVESTigate further. On satellite it shows up as a red dot towards the right of the picture.

Overnight, this low showed more thunderstorm activity as it moved in a west/northwesterly component at around 20 mph.

If more thunderstorms pop up, it could quickly become  a named system. So far no recon missions have been planned.

The chances for development are at 70%.  If it organizes into a storm it would be called "Irma".

If it does develop, where would it go?
Most models agree that in the short term, 3 - 5 days out, it will move northwesterly, tracking very close to Puerto Rico, Southeastern Bahamas, and Eastern Cuba. After that, it may even reach South Florida.

What does it have working for it?
It is traveling over warm waters and that can give it the fuel it needs to form. Even warmer waters lay ahead as it reaches the Bahamas and Florida Straits.

What does it have working against it?
Now nothing, but in a day or two, strong upper winds pop up that should knock it down or at least keep it in check.

Keep your eyes on this one just in case.

Another Wave to watch:
There is also a Tropical Wave just north of Hispaniola loaded with moisture and heading our way. Waves are very fickle, they can grow quickly or fall apart just as fast. If this one does not fall apart, it could brings us some downpours this weekend.

Tropical Storm Harvey:
It is impacting the Windward Islands with top winds of 40 mph. This is not a huge wind event, but more of a rain producer. Total accumulations of 2 - 4 inches are expected that will lead to localized flooding, land and mudslides.

Once it enters the Caribbean Sea, it should move mostly in a straight line missing most of the islands. Unfortunately it appears it will strike parts of Central America and Mexico, just under Cat 1 strength.

I'll keep you posted.