Monday, August 29, 2011

Katia Next?

NHC is watching Tropical Depression 12 in the Far Eastern Atlantic. Conditions will become favorable on Tuesday for this it to become Tropical Storm Katia. (This is the name that replaced Katrina in 2005).
On the image to the left, you can see three features on the Satellite picture.
  • Upper right is an area of disturbed weather-nothing to worry about.
  • Over Africa, there is another good looking feature. Could be something to watch in a few days.
  • Lower screen is T.D. 12. NHC is confident it will get stronger in the days ahead.

Long range models like the CMC, show a well organized cyclone in about 5-7 days northeast of the Leeward Islands. High pressure (Shown in orange) will push the system (shown as a small green circle) northwest .

By the middle of next week, it could be a category 2. You will notice by then the high weakens and opens a road for Katia to take. We are hoping it will remain an open water storm.

The GFDL model also shows a good looking tight cyclone, northeast of the Leeward Islands in about 5 days.

Here too, the model develops a gap in the high that "Katia" should move through and hopefully avoid all land areas. 

Bermuda should keep their eyes out, just in case.

I'll be watching the progress of TD 12 tonight and tomorrow and see if it develops into Tropical Storm Katia.


  1. I think we will be using the entire alphabet this year. it's getting very busy.......

  2. Phil, as of 11 PM advisory NHC seemed to be indicating that the most recent model guidance was closing off that escape route around day 5 and sending Katia due west. Are you seeing that too?

  3. oh no not again go away katia may and june no rain and now july and august rain

  4. try to use eupopean modules earlier ours aren't any good anyway

  5. Lydia, lets hope not. The more storms, the bigger our chances for a dorect hit here.

  6. Kmang. It's going to be a matter of timing. Right around Longitude 50, a weakness will develop by the weekend. It will depend on where Katia is at the time for it to make the turn. I'll keep watching.

  7. Anon: Models are like athletes . Some will go on a tear and perform well during one season, and then be terrible the next. Thats why there are so many of them. If they were perfect we would only need one.