Thursday, August 18, 2011

Maybe something, maybe nothing

This is the time of year when we look to the Cape Verde Islands for storm formation. Every year dozens and dozens of waves spin off the West Coast of Africa and only a handful develop into tropical systems.

We always keep a vigilant eye on the Eastern Atlantic just in case one of those waves decides to intensify and wreak havoc down the road.

On this Thursday, way out in the middle of the Atlantic, there is a tropical wave which NHC is giving a 10% chance that it could grow into a depression in the days ahead.  Right now it is just an area of clouds and rain with little in the way of wind and no center of circulation. We have seen worst afternoon storms here in South Florida than what this wave is producing at the moment.  The red circle in the Caribbean may turn into a depression later today and ultimately it will impact Central America. We are looking at the yellow area in the Atlantic.

There are times when technology shows us things that are still not there. Models offer us a glimpse of the future and can help us prepare in case something comes our way. Today, there is a great example of this.

Some models are already anticipating a depression forming in the open waters of the Atlantic and quickly developing into a hurricane.

The image below shows where this possible hurricane may be in 7 days. There is allot to look at here.  I have placed the image on large mode so we can see all the details.

  • The light gray lines define all the geography. You can find the USA and spot Florida.
  • The big orange areas represent high pressure systems, and the blues-low pressure.
  • Notice the tight circles highlighted by a blue dot right over Cuba. This is where the possible hurricane could be in 7 days, pushed our way by the Bermuda high to its East.

I would like to reiterate that as of this writing, there is nothing there in the Atlantic, not even an area of low pressure. For all we know, Mother Nature may fizzle this wave out as so many do this time of year, or then again, the worst could happen.  I wanted to show you this, just in case the models pan out and we have to deal with a hurricane in 7-10 days.  Let's hope nothing happens.


  1. I enjoyed this post it was very interesting.
    I would like to thank you for all you do in our community.
    Have a great day!

  2. Thanks. Hopefully nothing will come from this. Keep those fingers crossed.