"Alberto" trying to hang on

Tropical Storm "Alberto", is roughly 225 miles East of Jacksonville, FL with top winds of 40 mph.  It is now moving East with an eventual turn to the northeast over the next 24 hours.

The latest image to the lest shows how the upper clouds are being ripped away from the low level swirl.

It is a small system barely hanging on to tropical storm status. A recon plane is scheduled to check up on the patient this afternoon.

Even though "Alberto" is sitting over the Gulf Stream, a great source of heat energy, it is surrounded by very dry air and its chances for strengthening further are almost non existent.

Strong upper level winds are also shearing the storm keeping it from getting stronger.  Most of the gusty winds are offshore the Florida coast.

"Alberto" should at least remain as a Tropical Storm for a day or so as it sits over warm Atlantic waters.

What to Expect: 
Once strong upper winds begin to push "Alberto" away, they will weaken it and move it northeast into the Western Atlantic, where it will remain a worry for shipping lanes.

WSVN will air a hurricane preparedness special on June 1st. See you then.

"Alberto" moves very little

Tropical Storm "Alberto" is NOT looking healthy this evening.  A recon plane could not find winds  stronger than 40 - 45 mph. It is barely a tropical storm battling dry air and upper level shear.

The Tropical Storm Watch from the Savannah River south to the Santee River in South Carolinahas been cancelled.

The satellite imagery above gives you a good idea of "Alberto's" health.  There is a cluster of t-storms along a line stretching from the coast to inland portions of Georgia Very little rain is being reported, and any strong winds are sitting off shore.

What to expect:
Most models say "Alberto" will stall along the coast Sunday night. It should not get stronger as dry air sits just to its north and strong upper level winds out of the W/SW are shearing the system apart.

Models suggest that in about 24 hours, strong upper level winds will shoot out of the East Coast, and nudge "Alberto" out to open water.  By then, it could have lost its tropical characteristic, but still be a worry for marine interests.

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Alberto: 1st Tropical Storm of 2012

Not only is "Alberto" the first tropical system this year, but is the earliest  tropical storm to form before the official start of hurricane season.  The previous early start was "Ana" , between April 20th-24th , 2003.

"Alberto" sits about 120 miles South of Cape Fear, North Carolina.  As of early Sunday morning, its top winds were at 50 mph and moving to the Southwest at a 6 mph. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from the Savannah river to the Santee river along the South Carolinas coast.

What is surrounding "Alberto"?
There is a dry air mass on its North and Western sides and this should keep it from strengthening too much even though it is sitting over the warm waters of the Gulf stream. If it does get stronger, it should be just slight intensification.

Satellite imagery reveals that the low level center is removed from the strongest storms. This is a sign of a system still trying to get its footing.

There is also high pressure to its East and another area of low pressure situated to the Northeast.

So where is it headed?
All the features named above will steer "Alberto" towards the Carolinas for about the next day or so. Because of this, watches and warnings may be issued for portions of the Mid-Atlantic States.  After 24 hours, everything moves East and "Alberto" will quickly race out into the open waters of the Atlantic and become a worry for shipping lanes.

Stay tuned for the very latest on this early start to hurricane season.

New "Invest"

Low pressure off the East Coast, being watched by NHC.

A quick glance:
The image below shows a blob of clouds and rain over the Carolinas, this is an area of low pressure being monitored by the Hurricane Center.  It is starting to look more and more like a tropical low. It is siting over 100 miles Southeast of Myrtle Beach, and is expected to remain there over the next few days. It will continue to produce copious amounts of rain. This system could become a depression or a tropical storm over the next 24 hours.

There is another area of low pressure (The swirl east of the Carolias), the tail from this one, extends South through the Bahamas and then West over South Florida.

Shades of reds and oranges indicated pockets of heavy rain.

What to expect:

We should see more rain over the weekend as this "tail" will barely move east.  Everyone from South Florida through the Bahamas will get on and off t-storms. Things may improve by early next week.

This feature could be a big rainmaker for the East Coast

Where is the low by Myrtle Beach going? 
A quick look at some of the early model runs, suggests this feature will meander along the Mid-Atlantic states before the jet-stream pushes it out to the Northern Atlantic.  Because this area is of interest to the National Hurricane Center, it is being deemed as "Invest 93". This means it is an area they would like to "INVESTigate" further. NHC is giving this feature a medium chance for development as of Saturday morning... a 50% chance.

We'll keep you posted.

Pre-Season System

Hurricane season doesn't officially start until June, yet NHC is already keeping tabs on a disturbance way out in the Atlantic. This area of clouds and rain should only be a worry for shipping lanes, but is does serve as a reminder that we should all be getting ready.

So here is the feature:  It's around 460 miles Southwest of the Azores in the Far Eastern Atlantic.  NHC says there is some potential for this to grow stronger over the next few days, but even if it does, it should bother no one .

It looked better on Saturday, this Mother's Day it is getting more and more disorganized and NHC is lowering its chances for development from 40% down to 20%.

Eastern Pacific Atlantic

The models are fairly consistent that it will remain over open waters.

This is the time of year we encourage everyone to prepare. Even though most long range outlooks suggest a near normal season, it only takes one.  In 1992, we only had one storm that struck South Florida, and that was "Andrew". The channel 7 hurricane map and guide is full of helpful reminders and handy tips to help you survive a storm. You should be able to pick up your free copy at Publix, shortly. Meanwhile, hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific begins May 15th, and they are also eyeing a potential system.  This one is located 600 miles SSW of Manzanillo, Mexico. It has a good chance for growth . It should remain away from land.

More rain

No matter how you look at it , we are in for a few more wet days.  There is plenty of moisture across the area slowly making its way.....   thats the problem.  Models have been so off forecasting this event.  One day it shows rain moving away, then moving back, one moment they say heavy rain, not so much the next.   The reality is, its been raining in many areas since Saturday.

Miami had record rain on Sunday with 2.86", but many areas had more. For example Homestead received around 3 inches of rain. On the other hand, Ft. Lauderdale which is running a rain deficit, only accumulated a little better than half an inch over the last 24 hours.

Regardless of what the models say, we all expect the pockets of heavy rain to continue. Many areas of South Florida are saturated and any more rain will quickly flood streets. Because of this there is a Flood Watch in effect until Monday night. Drive carefully.

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Rainy weekend again?

We are watching the progress of a huge area of clouds and rain in the middle of the Caribbean Sea. If we were in June or July, our anxiety level would be higher as the threat of a tropical system developing would be greater.  As of now, we are just looking at the possibility of rain for the weekend. This is what is most unsettling because if it does wash out Saturday and Sunday, it would make it the third rainy weekend in a row. 

You can see on the image above the cloud shield which extends from Panama, north over Cuba and into the Florida Straits and the Bahamas.  The blues and reds represent where the heaviest rainfall can be found.

The map above shows a dashed line over the Southwestern Caribbean Sea, highlighting a disturbacnce,  hence the would-be worry if we were in hurricane season

We expect this area of clouds and rain to be dragged northward as upper level winds over the Gulf of Mexico and high pressure at the surface over the Bahamas, conspire to draw up this moisture and dump it over our area.  What is unclear is where it may end up. If the high over the Bahamas moves East some more, then we may not see that much rain. (Will have to wait for next model run.)

Below is what the local NWS office is expecting.

2012 Season almost here

On the "On-deck circle"

Highlights of Hurricane conference 2012

This year marks the 20th anniversary of hurricane Andrew striking South Florida. The biggest worry this year at NHC, is "Hurricane Amnesia". We have been very lucky over the last 5 to 6 years in which no storm has made a direct impact or caused major damage and because of this, experts worry that when a real threat develops, few people will heed the advice to move out.

Its incredible to think that when Andrew was brewing there were no forecast models available to TV forecasters. There was no Internet, nor NWS chat.

Things that have improved.

• Technology: Better models, computers, reconnaissance etc...One expert said, to the dismay of the attendees,"forecasters aren't getting better...models are."

• As has been said many times before, forecast tracks have greatly improved, but not intensity forecasting. The reason for this is that the features that control the path of a storm are much bigger than those impacting strength. The resolution has to improve on this issue as well as more eye observations.

What is new:

• The Genesis forecast will be extended out to 5 days. This is the graphic that shows the percentage potential for individual waves to develop (CSU will have it out for 14 days).

• Intensity forecasting  (even though there is very little skill) will also be extended to 7 days.

• A separate disturbance forecast will also be issued. (For fast developing coastal systems like Humberto which developed in less than 18 hours.) NHC may even issue watches and warnings before the system actually develops.(Lets see how that plays out)

• New Offshore Waters Forecast Zones effective April 3, 2012

• Inland Flooding is now the top killer during a hurricane, no longer storm surge. This will be the new focus taken on by NHC.

• NHC may actually issue watches and warnings even before a storm has actually developed. They will do this if they feel, according to forecast models, that a storm may develop quickly very close to land.  This will actually give cities a chance to prepare for the would be system.

Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale update

No Change to Categories 1-2 but
Category 3: 111-130 mph will change to 111-129 mph
Category 4: 131-155 mph will change to 130-156 mph
Category 5: 156 mph or higher will change to 157 mph or higher


Forecast Cone will be reduced in size(again). We Focus on Atlantic Basin

Forecast Period (hours)     Circle radius Atlantic Basin (nautical miles)       
              12                                                            36           
              24                                                            56
              36                                                            75       
              48                                                            95       
              72                                                           141       
              96                                                           180       
             120                                                          236     
Most interesting presentation, by Dr. Bill Gray

Dr. Gray spent 90 minutes arguing against Co2 being the main driver of climate change, or for that matter, causing more/stronger hurricanes. He says even though the world's Co2 level has increased over the last few years, the number of storms around the planet are less. His numbers from 1945 to 1969 (when Co2 was less) show a total 80 major hurricanes, while the number of major storms from 1970 through 1994, are less. Only 38.  (Interesting how he didn't include the activity from the active cycle that began in 1995 and in which we still find ourselves).

He says the main driver of Climate Change is Salt or the amount of saline in the oceans. This helps trap more solar radiation and thus warms up surface waters leading to more fuel for hurricanes. He blames the change in ocean currents as trapping more saline in the mid Atlantic. He says more fresh water runoff is responsible for the ocean currents changing and trapping the salt. (He did not however say that the extra fresh water runoff is from the melting of polar ice caps)

Here are the names for 2012. Followed by their pronunciation according to NOAA

Alberto             al-BAIR-toe
Beryl                 BER-ril
Chris                 kris
Debby               DEH-bee
Ernesto             er-NES-toh
Florence            FLOOR-ence
Gordon             GOR-duhn
Helene               heh-LEEN
Isaac                 EYE-zik
Joyce                 joyss
Kirk                  kurk
Leslie                LEHZ-lee
Michael             MY-kuhl
Nadine              nay-DEEN
Oscar                AHS-kur
Patty                 PAT-ee
Rafael                rah-fah--ELL
Sandy                SAN-dee
Tony                  TOH-nee
Valerie              VAH-lur-ee
William             WILL-yum


As always, you can check here for the very latest on any tropical activity during the 2012 season. You can also follow me on Facebook, Twitter, as well as our latest posting on the WSVN web page.

1st Strong Cold Front for 2012

I usually reserve this blog for hurricane season, but a nasty front is moving in and it could pack a punch!

Here is what NWS is saying.