Friday, April 27, 2012

Rainy weekend again?

We are watching the progress of a huge area of clouds and rain in the middle of the Caribbean Sea. If we were in June or July, our anxiety level would be higher as the threat of a tropical system developing would be greater.  As of now, we are just looking at the possibility of rain for the weekend. This is what is most unsettling because if it does wash out Saturday and Sunday, it would make it the third rainy weekend in a row. 

You can see on the image above the cloud shield which extends from Panama, north over Cuba and into the Florida Straits and the Bahamas.  The blues and reds represent where the heaviest rainfall can be found.

The map above shows a dashed line over the Southwestern Caribbean Sea, highlighting a disturbacnce,  hence the would-be worry if we were in hurricane season

We expect this area of clouds and rain to be dragged northward as upper level winds over the Gulf of Mexico and high pressure at the surface over the Bahamas, conspire to draw up this moisture and dump it over our area.  What is unclear is where it may end up. If the high over the Bahamas moves East some more, then we may not see that much rain. (Will have to wait for next model run.)

Below is what the local NWS office is expecting.

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