Watching a Pesky Wave

We've been following an area of disturbed weather in the Atlantic Ocean with the potential to develop since last week.  Its formation chances were as high as 80% on Friday, dropping as low as 20% on Monday, only to come back up to 40% on Tuesday. The cause of the downturn was a combo of drier air and strong upper level winds. This helped keep it in check.

• The satellite image shows a swirl of clouds roughly 400 miles east of the Leeward Islands. 
• The orange and red colors represent where the thunderstorms are developing.
• As of this update, most of the rain is in a straight line more or less, from SW to NE.

If the rain starts to spin around a center, this is a clear sign we may have a developed system on our hands.

Some shear, or strong upper level winds, is still impacting the disturbance as it moves west/northwest across the Atlantic Ocean.

Is there a chance it could become a depression or a tropical storm?

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) does not anticipate any development over the next 48 hours due to shear, but by the weekend however, it could be a different story.

NHC is giving it a 40% chance that it could develop in the area highlighted in orange.

Those strong upper level winds should be done by then providing a calm environment for the disturbance to grow.

The Shear is expected to return by Sunday night surrounding whatever has developed near the Bahamas.

Where may it go?
Most models are keeping whatever develops, away from land. The black line you see in the graph is a persistence model. It basically means, that if the system has been moving NW for the last 24 hours, it should continue moving NW in the next 24 hours.  Its just a "general idea" type of model.

Also keep in mind that models need a good starting point in order to provide a good ending point. So far, nothing has developed, so there's no good starting point. These projections are just an educated guess by the models. Many factors can still come into play, like water temperatures, upper level winds, and tropical moisture that can impact a forecast path.

In the short term,  the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico, will see the possibility of some showers & thunderstorms by Friday.

The Worry Meter:
As of this update, it is low. Keep checking back over the next day or two to see if anything has finally formed. Given the time of year, and placement, I wouldn't be surprised if something does organize. This is a good time to review your supplies just in case Mother Nature throws us a curveball.





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