On this 4th of July, Mother Nature may be providing some fireworks of her own in the Eastern Atlantic. An area of disturbed weather roughly 800 miles WSW of the Cape Verde Islands may be entering an area favorable for further development. We may have a tropical storm over the next 24 - 48 hours. If it does develop, it will called "Don".
The broad low has a surface pressure of about 1009 mb. The Satellite image suggests strong thunderstorm action within 120 nautical miles of the alleged center and a cloud spin extending away from the center a good 300 nm.
Top winds have been clocked at Gale Force, roughly 30 miles per hour in only one area, near the SE part of the low.
The cloud pattern doesn't look any different than on Monday, yet today NHC is giving it a 70% chance for organization in 48 hours and 80% over 5 days.
Where may it organize?
The broad low will inch towards the west thru much of the day then pick up speed later tonight at around 10 - 15 mph. If this broad area of low pressure does develop, it will do so anywhere in the area highlighted in red.
Once it develops, where is it heading?
(Keep in mind nothing has developed yet and without a good starting point for the models to use, they can't give us a good ending point. Right now these are just an educated guess.)
High pressure will be pushing whatever develops to the west in the short term. By days 3 - 5, a weakness appears in the high allowing the system to take more of a NW track.
That track will place it near the Leeward Islands or Central Atlantic. The islands should keep monitoring it just in case.
For the moment across South Florida & the Bahamas, the worry meter is on low. Check back periodically for further updates.