Sunday, September 7, 2014

NHC watching two, plus Rainy Tropics.

Good news, NHC was keeping tabs on three areas since Friday, but as of Sunday morning, we're down to two. But look at all the rain and clouds across the Yucatan, Central America, and the Bahamas, we're surrounded by precipitation and could see pockets of rain at any time.

Lets check out the first area NHC is following.

Its a few hundred miles west of the Cape Verde Islands.
Even though it has a small satellite signature, it does have some thunderstorm activity. If it can survive the hostile environment ahead of it, it may get a little stronger.

This is what NHC is saying:
A small area of low pressure located about 650 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.

Environmental conditions are forecast to remain
unfavorable for significant development during the next several days while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 10 percent.

This area has been deemed INVEST 91, by NHC (Invest for an area they would like to INVESTigate further) The early model runs suggest whatever develops should remain over open waters. (Remember at this stage of the game with no real good info or starting point, most models are giving us a very general outlook).

The second area just recently came off the West Coast of Africa. 

NHC is thinking this feature has the better chance for organization in the days ahead.  It does appear to have more t-storm activity and at least for the time being it should shy away from drier air to the north.

Here's NHC's update:

A large area of cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorms located over the far eastern Atlantic is associated with a tropical wave that recently emerged off the west coast of Africa.

Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development
of this disturbance during the next several days while it moves westward or west-northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

This feature is Invest 91, and here is the preliminary suite of model runs.

Here too it appears if this system develops it will be a worry only for the shipping lanes.

The third area NHC was monitoring on Friday by North Florida/Southern Georgia has degenerated into just an area of clouds and rain that will help keep most of North Florida soggy.

By the way the peak of hurricane season is the 10th of September.


  1. Pray it don't come here ..

  2. do u have forcast tomsriver njshore

  3. Mostly cloudy through Friday with a good chance for rain. Highs in the 70's. Hope this helps with any plans you may have.