Saturday, September 13, 2014

Wet Weekend?

On my presentations Friday, I showed 2 weather scenarios for the weekend.  We had an area of low pressure over us that at times provided for some heavy downpours. The low was kept in check due to some strong upper winds. My scenarios were based on the persistence of those strong winds.

Scenario 1: If the strong upper winds remained, it would weaken the low and the chances for rain would be fewer

Scenario 2: If the winds turned weaker then the low would have a chance to grow with a better chance for rain.

As of early Saturday morning, this is what NHC is saying about the the low:

The area of low pressure that was over Florida yesterday is now
located over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Shower activity
has not become any better organized, and upper-level winds are not
favorable for significant development as the system moves generally
westward during the next few days. The Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft scheduled for today is likely to be
canceled. Locally heavy rains associated with the low will continue
over portions of southern Florida and the Florida Keys through
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

It appears for the time being, that scenario #1 may be taking hold, but once the low pushes into the Gulf Saturday afternoon… we may see more rain returning for Sunday.

With so much uncertainty relating to this low, you can expect moments of dry weather followed by tropical downpours.

I wish I could give you a more precise outlook, but the atmosphere is so unstable that we can go from cloudy and dry to tropical rain in an instant.

In the Tropics: 
NHC is now watching only three areas. (Friday night we were watching four, but the one near Mexico has fallen apart.)

This is what NHC says:

  • Keeping tabs on the low near South Florida

  • Still following tropical storm Edouard in the middle of the Atlantic. It may reach hurricane status in a few days. It will remain a worry only for the shipping lanes.
  • Shower activity associated with a tropical wave located southwest of the Cape Verde Islands has become a little less organized this morning. Some development of this system is still possible before it moves westward or west-northwestward at around 10 mph into an area unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

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