Friday, September 12, 2014

Better rain than a Tropical Storm

I know its soggy, damp, humid, and miserable at times but it could be worse…we could be dealing with a tropical depression or a storm.

As of Friday morning, there is an area of low pressure just South of Lake Okeechobee providing plenty of rain, but if conditions would have been just right, we could have been dealing with an angrier Mother Nature. I'll take the rain.

This is the local radar:

Most of the heavy rain is across the Keys , but by the afternoon, more is expected to develop over the Metropolitan areas of Broward and Miami-Dade.

Since the ground is saturated in some areas, street flooding is a concern.

The local NWS office has issued the following statement.

This area of low pressure has been watched by NHC for a few days.

For awhile it was sitting over the warm waters of the gulf stream current with the potential for intensification, but strong upper winds kept it in check and will keep it weak for another 2-3 days. After that, all bets are off.

Here's what NHC is thinking once the low enters the Gulf of Mexico.

Once the low moves over the southeastern Gulf of
Mexico, conditions could become a little more conducive for tropical
cyclone formation over the weekend while the system moves westward
at around 10 mph. Regardless of development, this low will continue
to bring locally heavy rains to portions of southern Florida and the
Florida Keys today and Saturday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

The models on this low aren't giving us a clear picture of where it may end up. You see at this stage where the low itself is poorly organized, there is no good starting point for the models to use. No good starting point = no goo ending points.

In general the models are giving s general idea. Anytime you see model runs fan out like in this case, its a good indicator they are not handling the forecasts well. There is plenty of warm water in the Gulf and it could grow rather quickly. Everyone from Mexico to North Florida should be on guard.

There is also a new feature in the Far Eastern Atlantic. This is what NHC is saying about it.

Shower activity associated with a tropical wave located south of
the Cape Verde Islands is showing some signs of organization. This
system, however, is forecast to move westward or west-northwestward
at around 10 mph toward an area unfavorable for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

The models, again using very sketchy initial data, keep it over open waters.

And then there is Tropical Storm "Edouard". It may reach hurricane status over the weekend, but it will remain a worry only for the shipping lanes.

No comments:

Post a Comment