Friday, July 29, 2011

Nothing yet.

Afternoon recon has detected tropical storm force winds. They are still checking for a closed circulation at the surface, but so far nothing.
A hurricane hunter plane investigating the disturbance this morning could not detect  a closed center of circulation at the surface.

As of Monday morning;
  • Coordinates: 13.9N 57.2W
  • Location: About 250 miles East of Martinique in the Lesser Antilles
  • Pressure (MSLP): 1009 mb or 29.80 in
  • Sustained wind speed : 29 mph
This system appears to be smaller this morning on satellite imagery but a little better organized. More and more t-storms are developing around the center of circulation. NHC has dropped  its chances for development at 80%, down from a high of 100% on Sunday afternoon.

A strong tropical cyclone could develop at anytime that could pack a punch making its way northeast towards the islands, through Puerto Rico, and finally impacting the Bahamas.

Even if this low does turn into a tropical cyclone, it will dump plenty of rain across the islands leading to flash flooding dangers. Above are the potential rainfall totals for US Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

As I have been mentioning over the last day or so, the longer the system takes to develop, the more it will track west before making a turn to the North. This is being reflected in the latest suite of model runs. They are now showing a possible path through the Windwards, and then Dominican Republic and Haiti. This could be devastating for them , the low could bring heavy rain causing floods, land and mudslides. It could then impact Cuba, the Bahamas and possibly us.

NWS Puerto Rico says they could start feeling some gusty winds and rain by Tuesday.
Everyone in the path of this system should monitor it closely including the Bahamas and Florida.

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